Sales momentum accelerated in Q3 driven by improving market conditions and better access to customers’ installation sites – the solutions business grew faster than services business. Geographically, Asia-Pacific led the pack and the Americas returned to growth, though recovery lost pace in EMEA. Notably, profitability was hit by higher supply chain costs and an unfavourable product mix. Although the gross order intake was back in the black, it missed expectations with EMEA playing spoilsport. Given the COVID-19-related uncertainty, management hasn’t provided any full-year guidance.
Companies: Elekta (EKTA-B:STO)Elekta AB Class B (EKTA.B:OME)
Despite the challenging market conditions, Elekta outperformed its rivals in Q2 – in both terms of revenue and order growth. Operating profitability reached a new high driven by a favourable product mix and strict cost management. Although Q3 could be negatively impacted due to the new wave of lockdowns, a new product launch, Harmony, which complements Unity, could enable Elekta to outgrow the market when a rival is undergoing an integration phase. The new reimbursement model could also be favourable for Elekta.
Companies: Elekta AB Class B
Elekta’s Q1 results showed resilience in challenging market conditions. While the top-line benefited from higher service revenue and double-digit growth in China, profitability outperformance was driven by a favourable product mix and strict cost management. Importantly, in the weak radiotherapy market, gross order intake was in the black on the back of a big order from GenesisCare in the US. With Unity now in the growth phase of commercialisation and a new linac around the corner, Elekta’s mid-term growth prospects appear robust.
Benefiting from the super-rich valuations offered by Siemens Healthineers for the proposed acquisition of Varian Medical, Elekta, a direct competitor, surged c.15% yesterday. With the No.1 player in the oligopolistic radiation therapy market now grabbed, there is a possibility that the No.2 player, Elekta, might also be grasped by an industry bigwig. In our view, Royal Philips, which has been a strategic partner for Elekta, might be interested in the family-owned business in the mid-term.
While Q4 sales and order intake growth were affected due to limited access to hospitals, the speed-up of installations in April meant that FY19/20 targets were over-achieved. Positive sales development in the US and the resilience of the services business, thanks to digitalisation, also played a part. Although order growth could be under pressure in H1 20/21 – as hospitals trim their capex – Elekta’s healthy order backlog should ensure steady revenue in FY20/21. The big order from GenesisCare and improving momentum in China are encouraging.
Sales missed expectations in Q3 due to the delay in installations of linacs in the US. Order intake was also weak with the US being the main drag. However, the new regional manager’s aggressiveness could put the US back on track. Also, given the robust sales funnel of Unity, the 75 units order target could be achieved three months early. While margin expansion also remains on track, driven by an improving product mix and the cost-cutting programme, Coronavirus is a near-term threat.
Elekta, a market leader in radiotherapy, is set to outgrow the industry in the mid-term – driven by potential pick-up in demand for its new linac (Unity) and expected orders from China. Moreover, with robust margin expansion potential – led by an increasing proportion of Unity and software/service revenue and targeted cost-savings – earnings should grow healthily. Throw on top a sturdy balance sheet and a consistently-increasing dividend flow, Elekta is attractive at current levels. We initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation.
The cancer burden is growing globally. Each year >18 million people are diagnosed, nearly 10 million die and the estimated economic cost exceeds $1 trillion. From early diagnosis to late-stage disease, cancer care often involves inappropriate or unnecessary interventions that drive costs but provide limited clinical benefit. Coupled with an increased understanding of cancer biology and rapid technological advances, this has been driving momentum for precision medicine, leading to patient and societal benefits. The use of biomarkers and sophisticated diagnostics is facilitating early intervention through robot-enabled minimally invasive surgery and locally delivered radiotherapy. Immuno-oncology has revolutionised cancer care, with the focus now on identifying combinations that further improve long-term outcomes. Liquid biopsies and companion diagnostics are increasingly being used to personalise therapy.
Companies: VSC ABT ABBV AFMD A GOOGL AMGN AZN BCART BMY EKTAB EXAS GSK ILMN IPH ISRG IBAB JNJ MDXH MDG1 MDT MRK MYGN NSTG NOVN OCX PFE RAYB ROG SAN SGEN TMO TNG VAR VCYT VNRX XNCR IMM
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OptiBiotix operates in the human microbiome market and we see the company at an interesting strategic inflection point, with developing revenues generated from its lead products and showing commercial traction with the next generation of products. We expect the company to generate value from both sets of products and see additional upside from its holding in SkinBioTherapeutics. With increasing interest being shown in targeting the human microbiome to improve health, OptiBiotix is well positioned in the market and initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation.
Companies: OptiBiotix Health PLC
Futura has had a transformative few months with it securing European approval for MED3000, signing an out-licensing deal for Asia and agreeing a final structure for a small confirmatory US study. The shares have responded, up 261% YTD. However, we believe there are further significant catalysts to come including potential EU and RoW licensing deals, regulatory approval in smaller Asian markets and the start of the all-important US confirmatory study in H2. We expect the shares to further re-rate as management crystallises the value of MED3000 over the coming 6-18 months. Reiterate BUY.
Companies: Futura Medical plc
The UK market showed a continued recovery in the first quarter albeit the indices are still well short of their all-time peaks, unlike many of their international peers. The FTSE 100 has risen by 1,186 points (21.4%) since the end of October and the FTSE 250 by 4,304 points (25.0%). The comparable performance since the start of the year is less spectacular- the FTSE 100 has risen by 253 points (3.9%) and the FTSE 250 has risen by 1,070 points (5.0%). The factors behind the sustained rally are familiar. The belief that the roll-out of the vaccine and some relaxation of lockdown limitations will lead to a significant economic recovery, compared to the collapse seen in the first half of 2020, due to lockdowns. Indeed, the recent economic picture is becoming more optimistic than previous expectations. According to the ONS, the economy grew a little more than initially estimated in Q4 last year. This means GDP for 2020 as a whole contracted by 9.8%, revised up marginally but still the worst contraction on record. Markets, in general, have focused upon the potential scope and extent of the recovery. The sectors and stocks that have outperformed have been seen as ‘recovery’ plays with a rotation from stocks seen as ‘lockdown’ winners into those set to benefit from the ‘unlocking of society’ and/or exposed to the consumer. We expect 2021 will continue to be a “stock-picker’s” market. The sharp increase in the household savings ratio in Q4 highlights the scope for a recovery driven by expenditure. As further lockdown limitations are lifted, evidence of this growth will help to underpin the more optimistic outlook for Q2 and beyond.
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BAG BVC BEG BONH BLVN BRSD CML CWK CRPR EYE ECHO FDM FAR FA/ GPH GSF HUW INSE JDG KAPE KP2 MACF MPAC MNZS NESF NBI OTMP OBD PREM QFI RUA SCS SEN SOS SUR TON TOU TXP TGL TCN UEM VLS WYN
In the past few weeks, all the listed multi-national pharmaceutical companies have reported results for 2020, which has given us the opportunity to update our industry statistics and drug database. This report provides the first, snapshot publication of global and US rankings of the top 20 drug companies for 2020. Comparisons are made with historical data to show how different company strategies have evolved. In addition, summary analysis has been provided for the sales evolution of therapeutic biopharmaceutical drugs, which saw sales rise 5.6% to $245bn, representing 26% of the market, driven by antibody-derived drugs.
Companies: AVO ARIX BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN PXC RECI STX SCE TRX VTA YEW
Oncimmune has announced two separate substantial agreements with Roche and CedarsSinai to use the newly developed Infectious Disease panel to provide antibody and autoantibody profiling. Both agreements are with existing customers and highlight a deepening relationship with partners. In particular, it shows that value Roche see in the service with Roche now using the service across oncology, autoimmune (Genentech) and infectious disease areas. The announcement also adds continued support for the ImmunoINSIGHTS service platform and an early indication of the strong demand in the pipeline following the £9m equity raise in March. We believe the announcement is confirmatory to our recently upgraded post-raise estimates for FY’21 (May 21 Y/E) and FY’22, and make no changes to our estimates at this time.
Companies: Oncimmune Holdings Plc
Semper Fortis Esports* recently announced its intention to IPO onto the Access Segment of the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Semper is a multi-operational Esports organisation focusing on gaming technology solutions, brand enhancement and high growth team infrastructures. The company plans to raise £2.5m to develop their three core areas of establishing an esports team, forming partnerships with brands for sponsorship and B2B consultancy services. The Board are highly experienced in sports and corporate deal making (Keith Harris, former Chairman of The Football League), technology and electronic gaming (Nolan Bushnell, founder of the pioneering company, Atari), esports and game tech (Kevin Soltani and Jassem Osseiran). Target Admission Date of 26 April 2021 Darktrace plc. Announcement of Intention to Publish a Registration Document and Potential IPO on the main market of the London Stock Exchange. Darktrace was founded in 2013 with a mission to fundamentally transform the ability of organisations to defend their most critical assets in the face of rising cyber threats. Darktrace is a world-leading provider of AI for the enterprise, with the first at-scale in-the-enterprise deployment of AI in cyber security Timing TBA musicMagpie is a leader in re-commerce in the UK and US in the circular economy of consumer technology (including smartphones, tablets, consoles and personal computers), books and disc media (including CDs, DVDs and video games). Expected 28 April.. Offer details TBA Wickes to demerge from Travis Perkins and list on the Main Market. Expected 28 April. Advance Energy to complete an RTO on AIM indirectly acquiring up to 50% of Carnarvon Petroleum Timor which holds a 100 per cent. working interest and is the contractor under the Buffalo PSC, offshore Timor-Leste. Carnarvon Petroleum Timor is a subsidiary of ASX listed company, Carnarvon Petroleum Limited. The net proceeds of the Placing of approximately £20.01m (approximately US$27.51mm) will be used to fund the Acquisition. Due 19 April. NFT Investments plc is an investment company that specialises in non-fungible tokens (NFT). Has applied for admission to the Access segment of the AQSE Growth Market. No funds being raised. Due 16 April. Thor Explorations (TSXV:THX) seeking a secondary listing on AIM. The Company is targeting Admission during Q2 2021. Segun Lawson, President & CEO, stated: “Thor Explorations has advanced significantly, in both project development and capitalisation since the acquisition of Segilola in 2016. This year, the Company is well positioned to achieve two major milestones with the commencement of gold production at Segilola in Nigeria and a maiden resource at Douta in Senegal, as well as continuing to progress our highly prospective Nigerian exploration portfolio on the Ilesha Schist belt.” MAST Energy Developments (MED) is to IPO on the Standard List on 14th April 2021 under the ticker MAST. The company has raised £5m giving a market capitalisation on listing of c. £23m. MED is currently a 100% subsidiary company of AIM quoted, Kibo Energy*. MED was established to acquire and develop a portfolio of flexible power plants in the UK and become a multi-asset operator in the rapidly growing Reserve Power market. PensionBee has confirmed its intention to float on the High Growth Segment of the Main Market of LSE. The online pension provider had approximately 130,000 Active Customers and £1.5bn of assets under administration, in each case as at 28 February 2021. The Offer will comprise new Shares raising gross proceeds of approximately £55m and existing Shares to be sold by certain existing small minority shareholders of up to £5m. None of the founders, directors or members of senior management of PensionBee are selling any existing Shares. Expected in April. Imperial X (AQSE:IMPP) to join the Main Market (standard). It is also proposed that on Admission to the Official List, the Company will change its name to Cloudbreak Discovery Plc. With effect from Admission, Imperial X will hold equity positions and royalties in a variety of projects in the natural resources sector across multiple jurisdictions, primarily in the Americas and Africa. The Company is proposing to raise up to £1.5m by way of placing of new Ordinary Shares to support further prospect acquisitions. Current Mkt cap £4.7m Expected April 2021. Proposed move to AIM from the main market (standard) by Emmerson (EML.L) to provide Emmerson with access to a market and environment which is more suited, in the Board's view, to the Company's current size and strategy ahead of pivotal period for the Company with the commencement of mine construction at the Khemisset Potash Project expected by end of 2021. Follows recent award of Mining Licence granting Emmerson exclusive right to develop and mine the potash deposit and £5.5m raise to fund ongoing project development work. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance.
Companies: ADME ELIX DEV PPC TXP THR ATM FFWD C4XD IOG
Destiny reported a statutory pre-tax loss of £6.5m (adjusted loss of £6.3m vs our £6.9m estimate) driven by a 13% increase in operating costs to £6.4m. Period-end cash of £9.7m (vs. £7.5m at 31 December 2019) provides a runway into Q4 2022. Following outstanding Phase 2b data for XF-73 nasal, released in late March, and the acquisition last year of the global rights to NTCD-M3, the company has two Phase 3-ready assets, both of which are planned to commence registration studies in 2022. We reiterate our rNPV SOTP target price of 370p, which implies an EV of c.£200m, recognising also the upside potential given the substantially higher valuations for companies focused on CDI recurrence (e.g. Seres Therapeutics and Finch Therapeutics, which are valued at c.£1.4bn and c.£0.6bn respectively but arguably with less compelling profiles than NTCD-M3).
Companies: Destiny Pharma Plc
Futura Medical reported FY20 results in line with expectations, with net loss reduced from £8.9m to £2.4m. Net cash of £1.0m, coupled with £2.0m received in connection with the China and Far East MED3000 collaboration agreement and a £0.5m R&D tax credit, provides a cash runway that extends to Q122. The major events centre on MED3000’s progress along the respective regulatory paths in Europe and the US, with CE Marking expected by end-May. The FDA’s requirement is confirmed as a small study, FM71, involving 100 patients over six months. FY21 should see several commercialisation agreements established, notably in Latin America, Middle East, and Europe. Updating our model generates a valuation of £190.3m, equivalent to 76.6p (74.4p fully diluted) vs £181.5m and 73.1p (71.3p fully diluted) previously.
Semper Fortis Esports* recently announced its intention to IPO onto the Access Segment of the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Semper is a multi-operational Esports organisation focusing on gaming technology solutions, brand enhancement and high growth team infrastructures. The company plans to raise £2.5m to develop their three core areas of establishing an esports team, forming partnerships with brands for sponsorship and B2B consultancy services. The Board are highly experienced in sports and corporate deal making (Keith Harris, former Chairman of The Football League), technology and electronic gaming (Nolan Bushnell, founder of the pioneering company, Atari), esports and game tech (Kevin Soltani and Jassem Osseiran) and as FD Max Deeley. Target Admission Date of 26 April. Darktrace plc. Announcement of Intention to Publish a Registration Document and Potential IPO on the main market of the London Stock Exchange. Darktrace was founded in 2013 with a mission to fundamentally transform the ability of organisations to defend their most critical assets in the face of rising cyber threats. Darktrace is a world-leading provider of AI for the enterprise, with the first at-scale in-the-enterprise deployment of AI in cyber security Timing TBA musicMagpie is a leader in re-commerce in the UK and US in the circular economy of consumer technology (including smartphones, tablets, consoles and personal computers), books and disc media (including CDs, DVDs and video games). Expected 28 April. Offer details TBA Wickes to demerge from Travis Perkins and list on the Main Market. Expected 28 April. Advance Energy to complete an RTO on AIM indirectly acquiring up to 50% of Carnarvon Petroleum Timor which holds a 100 per cent. working interest and is the contractor under the Buffalo PSC, offshore Timor-Leste. Carnarvon Petroleum Timor is a subsidiary of ASX listed company, Carnarvon Petroleum Limited. The net proceeds of the Placing of approximately £20.01m (approximately US$27.51m) will be used to fund the Acquisition. Due 19 April. NFT Investments plc is an investment company that specialises in non-fungible tokens (NFT). Has applied for admission to the Access segment of the AQSE Growth Market. No funds being raised. Due 16 April. Thor Explorations (TSXV:THX) seeking a secondary listing on AIM. The Company is targeting Admission during Q2 21. Segun Lawson, President & CEO, stated: “Thor Explorations has advanced significantly, in both project development and capitalisation since the acquisition of Segilola in 2016. This year, the Company is well positioned to achieve two major milestones with the commencement of gold production at Segilola in Nigeria and a maiden resource at Douta in Senegal, as well as continuing to progress our highly prospective Nigerian exploration portfolio on the Ilesha Schist belt.” PensionBee has confirmed its intention to float on the High Growth Segment of the Main Market of LSE. The online pension provider had approximately 130,000 Active Customers and £1.5bn of assets under administration as at 28 February 2021. The Offer will comprise new Shares raising gross proceeds of approximately £55m and existing Shares to be sold by certain existing small minority shareholders of up to £5m. None of the founders, directors or members of senior management of PensionBee are selling any existing Shares. Expected in April. Imperial X (AQSE:IMPP) to join the Main Market (standard). It is also proposed that on Admission to the Official List, the Company will change its name to Cloudbreak Discovery Plc. With effect from Admission, Imperial X will hold equity positions and royalties in a variety of projects in the natural resources sector across multiple jurisdictions, primarily in the Americas and Africa. The Company is proposing to raise up to £1.5m by way of placing of new Ordinary Shares to support further prospect acquisitions. Current Mkt cap £4.7m Expected April. Proposed move to AIM from the main market (standard) by Emmerson (EML.L) to provide Emmerson with access to a market and environment which is more suited, in the Board's view, to the Company's current size and strategy ahead of pivotal period for the Company with the commencement of mine construction at the Khemisset Potash Project expected by end of 2021. Follows recent award of Mining Licence granting Emmerson exclusive right to develop and mine the potash deposit and £5.5m raise to fund ongoing project development work. Due 27 April.
Companies: KIBO ROCK VRCI K3C TOU ADT PCA ATYM IOM MJH
The Budget offered a clear picture of the state of the economy. Put simply, the economy will be 3% smaller in three years’ time than it would have been without the impact of the pandemic. However, it is forecast to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022, six months earlier than previously thought. The OBR forecasts that the UK economy will grow by 4.1% in 2021, (lower than the 5.5% outlined in November 2020). It has set its GDP forecasts in 2022, 2023 and 2024 at 7.3%, 1.7% and 1.6%. Positively, we have a continuation of substantial support for various parts of the economy – totalling £350bn. The market may focus on two elements. Under the so-called “super-deduction scheme, businesses which invest in the next two years will be able to claim 130% of the cost against their tax bill. This is significant but also significant is the proposed increase in corporation tax on profits from 19% to 25% in 2023. This has material consequences. Looking that far ahead is not straightforward. The increased tax charge will inevitably impact ratings. This may not be a consideration currently but may become one as more FY2023 estimates are introduced. Closer to home, we have continued to see most results/updates in line with expectations. An increasing number of companies have restored dividends. M&A across a broad range of sectors also looks set to continue.
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Having upgraded several times in the year, EKF’s FY20 results are as expected and show a step change in the performance of the business. Whilst this has been catalysed by the pandemic and sales of sample collection devices, the core business has held up relatively well and is showing an encouraging return to growth in Q1. The main new news this morning is a significant multi-year, multi-million dollar contract expansion for sample collection devices with a multinational private sector partner. We push through further material upgrades to FY21E revenue and PBT of 23% & 40% respectively and see further upgrade potential if demand persists and continues to grow.
Companies: EKF Diagnostics Holdings plc
OVID-19 is presenting an incremental revenue opportunity to Diaceutics. Testing data in this area is highly valuable and an initial contract win has been announced. The market is recovering from the hiatus seen last year and Diaceutics has a unique capability of solving the disconnect between laboratories and precision medicine marketing.
Companies: Diaceutics Plc
Destiny has transformed its position from a year ago, both in fundamental terms and in share price strength. A year ago, Destiny was navigating the conduct of its Phase 2b clinical trial through the challenges of the pandemic. A year on, positive results from that study, the acquisition of another Phase 3-ready program, plus a successful fundraising have all transformed Destiny’s investment proposition. Their FY 2020 financials also emphasize what has not changed about Destiny − its prudent financial management.
SourceBio International (SBI) has made a huge impact on its return to public markets. It reported a 139% rise in fiscal 2020 (FY20) reported revenues to £50.7mln from £21.2mln and underlying earnings (EBITDA) of £14mln, vs £3mln in FY19. Growth was driven largely on its rapid mobilisation of resour
Companies: Source Bioscience
Today’s interims is the latest evidence that the strategic progress made in 2020 is translating into financial results and improved fundamentals. Headline H1 revenue growth of 593% vs. H1’20 and 259% vs. the entire of FY’20 is eye-catching (albeit from a low base), but for us the encouraging factor is that this performance is on a much leaner cost base with losses in the period significantly narrowing. We believe this is the first step along a path towards sustainable growth and profitability, and we are confident in the management’s ability to meet our forecasts and make no changes to our numbers at this stage. We reiterate our view of Oncimmune as one of our Best Ideas for 2021.
