We look for Metallus to post 4Q:25 EPS of $0.05 compared to an $0.08 per share loss a year earlier, yet down from $0.28 in 3Q:25.
In 4Q:25, there were costs worth noting, including a maintenance shutdown and expenses related to USW contract negotiations.
Profitability was also likely hampered by adverse product mix, while potential offsets include price increases, manufacturing efficiency programs and better melt utilization.
We will look for an update on key end markets, particularly automotive and aerospace & defense, on the fourth quarter conference call.
We maintain our EPS estimates of $1.17 in 2026 and $1.63 in 2027.
Metallus has retired its remaining convertible preferred and is now debt free. At the end of 3Q:25, the company had net cash of $191.5 million ($4.45 per share). Excess cash has been used to repurchase stock.
Our $20 price target is based on 12x our 2027 EPS estimate of $1.63. Our moderate risk rating recognizes the cyclicality in the company's end markets and the notable customer concentration, offset by diversification efforts, a clean balance sheet and cost-saving initiatives.
13 Feb 2026
Anticipate Year Over Year Profit Rebound In 4Q:25; We Will Look For Updates On Pricing, Cost Increases And Key End Market Demand; Maintain $20 Price Target
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Anticipate Year Over Year Profit Rebound In 4Q:25; We Will Look For Updates On Pricing, Cost Increases And Key End Market Demand; Maintain $20 Price Target
We look for Metallus to post 4Q:25 EPS of $0.05 compared to an $0.08 per share loss a year earlier, yet down from $0.28 in 3Q:25.
In 4Q:25, there were costs worth noting, including a maintenance shutdown and expenses related to USW contract negotiations.
Profitability was also likely hampered by adverse product mix, while potential offsets include price increases, manufacturing efficiency programs and better melt utilization.
We will look for an update on key end markets, particularly automotive and aerospace & defense, on the fourth quarter conference call.
We maintain our EPS estimates of $1.17 in 2026 and $1.63 in 2027.
Metallus has retired its remaining convertible preferred and is now debt free. At the end of 3Q:25, the company had net cash of $191.5 million ($4.45 per share). Excess cash has been used to repurchase stock.
Our $20 price target is based on 12x our 2027 EPS estimate of $1.63. Our moderate risk rating recognizes the cyclicality in the company's end markets and the notable customer concentration, offset by diversification efforts, a clean balance sheet and cost-saving initiatives.