With this note, we transition ASTE to our company sponsored research platform.
We raise our price target to $52 (from $48) as we modestly lift our 2025 EPS estimate to $3.26 (from $3.19) on expected TerraSource synergy realization and improving margins and introduce our 2027 EPS estimate of $3.60.
We model 15% year-over-year revenue growth to $336 million in the typically seasonally slowest 3Q:25, benefiting from the July closing of the TerraSource acquisition, with gross margin widening due to mix and ongoing production efficiency improvements.
We expect the TerraSource acquisition to boost Materials Solutions (MS) margins by 200 basis points and model a portion of the anticipated $10 million in annual synergies to be realized in 2026.
State and local government transportation contract awards grew nearly 3% year over year in August, with year-to-date awards up 10% to $101 billion, according to the American Road & Transportation Builders Association (ARTBA), supporting stable demand for the Infrastructure Solutions (IS) segment, in our view.
Management is targeting a year-end 2x pro forma net leverage (including TTM results from TerraSource) and below 2x next year.
We expect growing cash flow to fund debt reduction but would not rule out a smaller acquisition.
Our $52 price target is based on 16x our raised 2026 EPS estimate of $3.26 (from $3.19), in line with the small cap peer group. Previously, we applied a 15x multiple, near the midpoint of ASTE's long-term forward average. Our moderate risk rating is supported by the healthy balance sheet and improving cash conversion.
26 Nov 2025
Raise Price Target To $52 (From $48) As We Modestly Lift Estimates, Supported By Improving Margins And Expected TerraSource Synergies
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Raise Price Target To $52 (From $48) As We Modestly Lift Estimates, Supported By Improving Margins And Expected TerraSource Synergies
ASTEC INDUSTRIES (ASTE:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
26 Nov 2025 -
Author:
Steve Ferazani, CFA -
Pages:
11 -
With this note, we transition ASTE to our company sponsored research platform.
We raise our price target to $52 (from $48) as we modestly lift our 2025 EPS estimate to $3.26 (from $3.19) on expected TerraSource synergy realization and improving margins and introduce our 2027 EPS estimate of $3.60.
We model 15% year-over-year revenue growth to $336 million in the typically seasonally slowest 3Q:25, benefiting from the July closing of the TerraSource acquisition, with gross margin widening due to mix and ongoing production efficiency improvements.
We expect the TerraSource acquisition to boost Materials Solutions (MS) margins by 200 basis points and model a portion of the anticipated $10 million in annual synergies to be realized in 2026.
State and local government transportation contract awards grew nearly 3% year over year in August, with year-to-date awards up 10% to $101 billion, according to the American Road & Transportation Builders Association (ARTBA), supporting stable demand for the Infrastructure Solutions (IS) segment, in our view.
Management is targeting a year-end 2x pro forma net leverage (including TTM results from TerraSource) and below 2x next year.
We expect growing cash flow to fund debt reduction but would not rule out a smaller acquisition.
Our $52 price target is based on 16x our raised 2026 EPS estimate of $3.26 (from $3.19), in line with the small cap peer group. Previously, we applied a 15x multiple, near the midpoint of ASTE's long-term forward average. Our moderate risk rating is supported by the healthy balance sheet and improving cash conversion.