2Q:25 results beat our expectations, aided by higher License & Support revenue. While the 2025 revenue guidance was tempered, the non-GAAP operating margin guidance and cash flow target were increased.
The company undertook a refinancing in June that included extra capital to alleviate some of the pension overhang.
We still think the company is making good progress on transitioning to higher margin revenue and improved cash flow. However, we expect net profit to be muted by increased interest expense.
We expect cash generation to improve in 2026, potentially aiding debt reduction.
We are switching our valuation method to use free cash flow per share instead of GAAP EPS, as we expect earnings to be pressured by higher interest expense while the refinancing and alleviation of the pension overhang has a neutral effect on free cash flow. We now use a 7x multiple on our 2026 free cash flow per share projection of $1.10 to derive a $8 price target. We previously used a 15x multiple on our prior 2026 GAAP EPS projection of $0.55 to derive a $8 price target.
Debt reduction is needed before we revisit our high risk rating. While the pension overhang has become less burdensome, we still view debt as a bit elevated.
09 Aug 2025
Solid 2Q:25 Results Aided By Higher License & Support Revenue; Expect Continued Margin Expansion And Improved Cash Flow To Aid Debt Reduction; Maintain $8 Price Target, High Risk
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Solid 2Q:25 Results Aided By Higher License & Support Revenue; Expect Continued Margin Expansion And Improved Cash Flow To Aid Debt Reduction; Maintain $8 Price Target, High Risk
2Q:25 results beat our expectations, aided by higher License & Support revenue. While the 2025 revenue guidance was tempered, the non-GAAP operating margin guidance and cash flow target were increased.
The company undertook a refinancing in June that included extra capital to alleviate some of the pension overhang.
We still think the company is making good progress on transitioning to higher margin revenue and improved cash flow. However, we expect net profit to be muted by increased interest expense.
We expect cash generation to improve in 2026, potentially aiding debt reduction.
We are switching our valuation method to use free cash flow per share instead of GAAP EPS, as we expect earnings to be pressured by higher interest expense while the refinancing and alleviation of the pension overhang has a neutral effect on free cash flow. We now use a 7x multiple on our 2026 free cash flow per share projection of $1.10 to derive a $8 price target. We previously used a 15x multiple on our prior 2026 GAAP EPS projection of $0.55 to derive a $8 price target.
Debt reduction is needed before we revisit our high risk rating. While the pension overhang has become less burdensome, we still view debt as a bit elevated.