Top Picks for 2023 - 2022 review and outlook for 2023

On 10 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2022, in what turned out to be a very poor twelve months for global equities, due to war, accelerating inflation, political instability and recession fears. Between 7 January 2022 and 31 December 2022, the AIM All-Share Index declined 30.0%, whilst the average performance of our ten top picks was -24.7%, a modest relative outperformance. In this note we discuss the performance of our 2022 top picks, equities trends in 2022, and our

LIBERUM: Vertu Motors - Helston acquisition an excellent strategic fit

On track after Q3, including targeted ND reduction

Growth of 5% over peak includes the adverse effect of Royal Mail strikes in the UK in Dec, offset by expansion in Europe. A temporary margin fall, in part due to targeted stock reduction which supports ND reduction, has been offset by labour efficiencies and lower marketing costs. It remains on track to meet FY EBITDA and lower ND, concerns about which have weighed on the rating despite significant balance sheet flexibility. Growing confidence here is helpful.

Morning Note – 26 January 2023

SHORE CAPITAL - XP Factory+ (XPF, House Stock at 16p)

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 23 Jan 23

23 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

YE update – another positive staging post for new team

The YE update shows that strong LFL and operational momentum was sustained in H2. Overall FY22 system sales grew by 20% and LFLs by 21%, led by volume/mix as the new CEOs actions begin to take effect. We make no forecast changes, but the positive H2 profitability trend cited is an important inflection point in the context of DPP now moving to sustainable profits. A well-capitalised balance sheet also means expansion is firmly on the agenda. The key point is that international evidence shows once

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 19 Jan 23

19 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 Jan 23

24 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Cenkos: Consumer Q1/23

Key Observations Despite a second successive decline in CPI during the quarter, inflation remained at one of the highest levels in 40 years (10.5% in December) contributing to a winter of discontent, with each day in December facing some form of industrial action. The industrial action materially impacted the consumer sector and provided an insight into the simmering frustration around the decline in real wages of the UK population. There were multiple examples of consumer corporate failures d

SHORE CAPITAL - Motorpoint Group+ (MOTR) - House Stock at 145p

Spring is finally coming

The market reacted positively to easyJet’s Q1 trading update as the meaningful pricing tailwind and the continued restoration of load factors allowed for consensus-beating results and guidance. The buoyancy was further fuelled by the low-cost rivals’ promising stance on summer activities. We expect an upgrade in the consensus and to our valuation.

FY22 beat but FY23/24 growth trajectory moderated

Hoping for a full recovery in the new FY

The group’s FY22 results confirmed its preliminary communication and the latest bookings continue to support a promising outlook. Nevertheless, a potential large-scale strike in France during the important Christmas holidays is weighing on the share price performance. We expect a slight upgrade to our valuations.

SHORE CAPITAL - Rank Group^ (RNK, Buy at 91p) H1: Guidance unchanged but signs of life