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The contraction in Residential development is intensifying, with a record cancellation rate in Q3 23. The backlog is shrinking slightly. In our opinion, Q4, which is always very important in this business, is not looking good. In the Office Property segment, organic growth remains below indexation, but the occupancy ratio is improving a bit.
Companies: Icade (ICAD:EPA)Icade SA (ICAD:PAR)
AlphaValue
Icade’s portfolio profile has changed significantly following the €1.4bn disposal of Healthcare. The new CEO will present a strategic roadmap in early 2024 at the latest.
While indexation of 5% further obscured the slight degradation in Offices, Residential Development showed a record cancellation rate in Q1 23, almost the double of the 2014-22 sequence.
In a major move, Icade will divest its Healthcare business in full. This is likely to modify Icade’s big picture. The new strategy remains to be established.
As property performed in line with both expectations and its peers, Residential development was resilient due to high reservations from institutional investors. Icade’s CEO will change this summer.
When looking at the Q3 22 figures alone, we don’t share Icade’s kind of optimism. H1 23 should show some fragilities in the French residential development business, in our view.
Icade experienced rising further vacancy in Offices sequentially. In residential development, the cancellation rate accelerated in Q2 22 alone. Guidance was confirmed, nevertheless.
In Offices, the pressure was concrete with a negative performance lfl. Rising construction costs in Icade’s development business will question French residential units’ affordability in 2023.
Yield compression in Healthcare has offset the impact of rising vacancy in Offices. The recovery recorded in Residential Development is about to stabilise in FY 22. The company’s guidance of +4% in FFO in FY 22 (before accounting for another tranche of disposals) doesn’t push to strong optimism.
Following stabilisation in Q2 21, vacancy was up 130bps sequentially in French Offices. Guidance unchanged. Nothing more about the Icade Santé IPO.
No major surprise in Q2 21 in the Property business: vacancy stands at a high level but was roughly flat sequentially. Reservations in the Residential Development business were flat sequentially too: strong lfl growth in H1 21 can therefore not be extrapolated to H2 21-2022. A negative base effect could occur in H1 22, in our view.
Q1 21 revenue was up 43% lfl with a negative contribution from the Property segment. Residential development was up 128% (lfl, IFRS) pushed by apartments delivered to the French Government arm (CDCH).
Much as Covivio and Gecina did earlier, Icade released a reassuring picture at pixel time (December 2020) as far as offices were concerned. It experienced some little negative revaluations too, but the balance sheet stays under control. It will pay a stable cash dividend of €4.01 per share.
As per Gecina, Icade’s vacancy was more or less stable on a sequential basis in Q3 20. The most interesting figure was the decreasing number of residential reservations in Q3 20, ahead of the contribution from the CDCH (French government). This reflects lower confidence from both individual investors and first-time individual buyers.
Companies: Icade SA
NNNAV was stable in H1 20 as valuers consider that the crisis doesn’t impact offices until now. It’s a fact that due to this specific business’s inertia, both vacancy and pressure on rents will not increase before H1 21, in our view.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Icade SA. We currently have 0 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
Companies: Plus500 Ltd.
Liberum
Tatton, the leading on-platform discretionary fund manager (DFM) and IFA support services Group has released a trading update ahead of its results to 31 March 2024, due on 18 June 2024.
Companies: Tatton Asset Management Plc
Zeus Capital
The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no
Companies: AEIT ROOF DGI9 INPP GSF SEIT USFP HICL ORIT BSIF TRIG NESF SEQI HEIT GRP GCP FSFL 3IN AERI PINT RNEW BBGI GSEO DORE TENT GRID CORD HGEN AEET
Hardman & Co
Ondo InsurTech has released a brief post-YE update revealing its good progress continued through 2H24 and consequently FY24 will be in line with market expectations.
Companies: Ondo Insur Tech PLC
Dowgate Capital
BRWM’s managers: we see all the classic signs of high commodity prices...
Companies: Blackrock World Mining Trust PLC
Kepler | Trust Intelligence
The refinancing of a £135m revolving credit facility and the extension of a similar £70m facility gives NESF firepower as development opportunities for new solar are especially attractive thanks to lower module prices in Europe. They give the fund key financial flexibility at a critical time as it pursues its capital recycling programme.
Companies: NextEnergy Solar Fund Ltd
Longspur Clean Energy
Companies: discoverIE Group PLC (DSCV:LON)LendInvest PLC (LINV:LON)
Cavendish
Feature article: Steady as she goes, but could be better: A review of investment company liquidity since 2016 Liquidity is the lifeblood of equity markets. The measurement of liquid asset availability to a market or company is a way of gauging a market’s health. This article builds on our previous work, which analysed the liquidity data for non-financial trading companies, by applying the same analytical techniques to the investment companies (IC) space. We analyse liquidity for ICs as a whol
Companies: NBPE ICGT ARBB RECI CLIG HAT AVO VTA APAX
Foxtons Group plc first quarter revenue rose 9% to £35.7m (1Q23: £32.9m) with growth delivered across all business segments. Trading is in line with management's expectations.
Companies: Foxtons Group Plc
Companies: UTL ASC DNLM BWNG MONY DFS BOO
Shore Capital
Companies: M Winkworth plc
Foxtons Group’s Q1 revenue grew by 9%, supported by growth in all three divisions as the strategic initiatives continue to gain significant momentum, driven by investment in staff, best-in-class bespoke IT and data platforms. This implies that Foxtons’ medium-term targets are now coming into focus. Market share is being gained in all divisions, which puts Foxtons in a good position as the sales market stabilises. We maintain our valuation of 132p/share and believe that if interest rates stabilis
Edison
Vp’s full year update highlights sector-leading results, once again benefiting from the diversity of its end markets and the quality of its specialist businesses. With results expected to be broadly in line with expectations, we trim our FY24 PBT forecast by c.5% to £39.0m, a shade below the FY23 outturn (£40.2m). We consider this an impressively resilient performance set against a mixed market backdrop. Under new leadership, a strategic refresh is underway and management is confident in long
Companies: Vp plc
Equity Development
16th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radical Limited for
Companies: IP BILN SAR GATC ASTO PHE SHOE CCS IP CUSN
Hybridan
AUM jumped £3.8bn or +30% in FY24, reaching £16.6bn on 31 Mar 24, 12% above our previous forecast of £14.7bn. Including 50%-owned 8AM Global, Assets Under Influence hit £17.6bn. Investment performance provided a tailwind, adding £1.5bn to AUM. But our key takeaway from Tatton’s hugely impressive last few years, is that it has designed and implemented a superior offering in platform-MPS with net flows consistently far higher than peers. That leadership looks even more pronounced in H2-24 with net
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