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  • 17 Dec 2025

2026 Outlook: We Expect Continued Expense Discipline To Support Operating Leverage Amid Conservative Underwriting; Balance Sheet Improving; Maintain Estimates, $10 Price Target


Oportun Financial Corp (OPRT:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Sidoti & Company
    • Brendan McCarthy, CFA

    • 10 pages


 

We hosted Oportun Financial at the Sidoti Year End Conference, where CEO Raul Vazquez outlined the company's focus on improving credit outcomes and strengthening business economics while maintaining expense discipline. In our 2026 outlook, we highlight a return to revenue growth due to high-quality loan originations, which had risen for four consecutive quarters as of 3Q:25. Still, given ongoing economic uncertainty, we expect OPRT to maintain a conservative underwriting posture and manage loan growth to economic conditions. OPRT will have room to further taper operating expenses into 2026, in our view, which we expect to support operating leverage. Our 2026 EPS estimate is $1.28, up from an estimated $1.02 in 2025. At our Sidoti Year End Conference, management outlined OPRT's secured personal loan product, which has grown nicely while showcasing credit losses that have trended about 500 basis points lower than the unsecured loan product. OPRT continues to meaningfully improve its balance sheet, with leverage down to 7.1x at 3Q:25 from the 3Q:24 peak of 8.7x. We expect the company to continue to repay its high cost (about 15%) term loan. As leverage progresses toward OPRT's 6x target, management mentioned possibly adding share repurchases to its capital allocation framework, considering the share price trades well below book value (about a 40% discount to our 2026 book value per share estimate of $9.57). We maintain our $10 price target, based on a 7x applied multiple to our 2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $1.59. Our moderate risk rating reflects the economic sensitivity of OPRT's borrowing cohort and its credit products.

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2026 Outlook: We Expect Continued Expense Discipline To Support Operating Leverage Amid Conservative Underwriting; Balance Sheet Improving; Maintain Estimates, $10 Price Target


Oportun Financial Corp (OPRT:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 17 Dec 2025
  • Author: Brendan McCarthy, CFA
  • Pages: 10
  • Sidoti & Company


We hosted Oportun Financial at the Sidoti Year End Conference, where CEO Raul Vazquez outlined the company's focus on improving credit outcomes and strengthening business economics while maintaining expense discipline. In our 2026 outlook, we highlight a return to revenue growth due to high-quality loan originations, which had risen for four consecutive quarters as of 3Q:25. Still, given ongoing economic uncertainty, we expect OPRT to maintain a conservative underwriting posture and manage loan growth to economic conditions. OPRT will have room to further taper operating expenses into 2026, in our view, which we expect to support operating leverage. Our 2026 EPS estimate is $1.28, up from an estimated $1.02 in 2025. At our Sidoti Year End Conference, management outlined OPRT's secured personal loan product, which has grown nicely while showcasing credit losses that have trended about 500 basis points lower than the unsecured loan product. OPRT continues to meaningfully improve its balance sheet, with leverage down to 7.1x at 3Q:25 from the 3Q:24 peak of 8.7x. We expect the company to continue to repay its high cost (about 15%) term loan. As leverage progresses toward OPRT's 6x target, management mentioned possibly adding share repurchases to its capital allocation framework, considering the share price trades well below book value (about a 40% discount to our 2026 book value per share estimate of $9.57). We maintain our $10 price target, based on a 7x applied multiple to our 2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $1.59. Our moderate risk rating reflects the economic sensitivity of OPRT's borrowing cohort and its credit products.

More Content

More Content

Introduce 2027 Estimates; Despite A Higher Expected NCO Rate, OPRT Increased 2025 EPS Guidance; 3Q:25 Outperformed Estimates; Balance Sheet Improving; Maintain $10 Price Target

Companies: Oportun Financial Corp

Sidoti & Company

OPRT: Initiate Coverage Of Oportun Financial With A $7 Price Tar

Companies: Oportun Financial Corp (OPRT:NYSE)Oportun Financial Corp. (OPRT:NAS)

Sidoti & Company

OPRT Extended Key Pathward Partnership; Estimate Solid EPS Growth In 3Q:25; OPRT Increased Warehouse Capacity With New Lenders; Note New ABS Transaction; Maintain $10 Price Target

Companies: Oportun Financial Corp

Sidoti & Company

Takeaways From The Sidoti Conference: Positive Fundamental Outlook Backed By Origination Growth And Expense Discipline, In Our View; Highlight SPL Growth; Maintain $10 Price Target

Companies: Oportun Financial Corp

Sidoti & Company

Note Investor Agreement; Remain Bullish On Fundamental Outlook; Forecast Expense Discipline Drove EPS Improvement In 2Q:25; Liquidity Position Remains Healthy; Maintain $10 Target

Companies: Oportun Financial Corp

Sidoti & Company
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