We are reducing our 2Q:25 revenue estimate by $50 million and increasing our 4Q:25 revenue projection by the same amount, reflecting expected client demand delays due to macroeconomic conditions. Our 2Q:25 revenue estimate now implies a 9.4% year over year decline and is also impacted by prior divestiture activity
As a result, we now estimate a 2Q:25 loss per share of $0.19 (down from our prior estimate of a $0.14 loss per share), wider than the year ago $0.14 a share loss.
Conduent's reiterated guidance in May, included adjusted revenue of $3.10-$3.25 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin of 4.5%-5.5%.
We maintain our adjusted estimates (for divestitures and restructuring) of a loss per share of $0.29 in 2025 and breakeven results in 2026
Our updated free cash flow (excluding the add back of stock-based compensation expense) per share estimates of $0.11 (from $0.02) in 2025 and $0.30 (from $0.18) in 2026 imply respective FCF yields of 4.3% and 11.4%.
We note the July 31 closing price of $2.73 is a 47% discount to the 1Q:25 book value of $5.03
The valuation of Conduent is most appropriately tied to book value per share, in our view.
Our $7 price target is based on our estimated year-end 2026 book value per share of $6.85. The improved balance sheet, defensible business model and solid customer base support both the valuation and our moderate risk rating.

11 Aug 2025
We Widen Our 2Q:25 Loss Per Share Estimate To $0.19 From $0.14, Due To Expected Delays In Client Activity; We Maintain Our 2025-2026 Full Year Estimates And $7 Price Target

Sign up for free to access
Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.
Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.
We Widen Our 2Q:25 Loss Per Share Estimate To $0.19 From $0.14, Due To Expected Delays In Client Activity; We Maintain Our 2025-2026 Full Year Estimates And $7 Price Target
We are reducing our 2Q:25 revenue estimate by $50 million and increasing our 4Q:25 revenue projection by the same amount, reflecting expected client demand delays due to macroeconomic conditions. Our 2Q:25 revenue estimate now implies a 9.4% year over year decline and is also impacted by prior divestiture activity
As a result, we now estimate a 2Q:25 loss per share of $0.19 (down from our prior estimate of a $0.14 loss per share), wider than the year ago $0.14 a share loss.
Conduent's reiterated guidance in May, included adjusted revenue of $3.10-$3.25 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin of 4.5%-5.5%.
We maintain our adjusted estimates (for divestitures and restructuring) of a loss per share of $0.29 in 2025 and breakeven results in 2026
Our updated free cash flow (excluding the add back of stock-based compensation expense) per share estimates of $0.11 (from $0.02) in 2025 and $0.30 (from $0.18) in 2026 imply respective FCF yields of 4.3% and 11.4%.
We note the July 31 closing price of $2.73 is a 47% discount to the 1Q:25 book value of $5.03
The valuation of Conduent is most appropriately tied to book value per share, in our view.
Our $7 price target is based on our estimated year-end 2026 book value per share of $6.85. The improved balance sheet, defensible business model and solid customer base support both the valuation and our moderate risk rating.