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Revenues at USD 81m vs. Arctic and Nordic consensus at USD 90-95m Quality of revenues solid with late sales at USD 61m – up 10% vs. Q2 2020 Negative revenue revisions about to through – down 50% since February Downside protection with sustainable div.yield at 4.5% and P/B at 1.0x
Companies: TGS ASA
Arctic Securities
The current pessimistic sentiment towards oil and gas reflects a similar degree of optimism regarding renewable energy. While the transition clearly has begun, fossil fuels still deliver 85% of the world’s energy supply. The transition to a green energy base will take decades and we feel investors underestimate the complexity. With more realistic consensus estimates, and a sustainable dividend yield of 4-5% we upgrade the stock to Buy (Sell) – target NOK 125 (120)
We reiterate Sell with a new target of NOK 120 (130). Revenue revision has been negative post Q2 and we believe this trend will continue. While we expect 2H 2020 revenues of USD 196m, consensus is at USD 241m. Furthermore, 2021 estimates appear high as we do not believe TGS will be able to replace the 2020 backlog, which we believe will become evident over the next months. On 2020/21 numbers, we find no valuation support on FCF, P/E or EV/EBIT
Revenues of USD 96m in line with pre-announced numbers EBIT of USD –84m (USD –36m excl impairment) – Arctic at USD -26m Backlog USD 98m vs. USD 160m end Q1 – supports a weak market Share to trade largely in line with other energy stocks
Q2 revenues USD 96m vs. Bloomberg consensus at USD 98m Pre-funding revenues “saves” Q2 with USD 38m (40% of revenues) Pre-funding revenues to dive in 2H owing to much lower investments Late sales USD 54m vs. Arctic at USD 50m – down almost 70% from Q219
We change our recommendation to Sell (Buy) following a +50% share price gain. We fear that the market perception among investors over the next six months will become weaker triggered by quarterly revenues significantly below consensus. We acknowledge that TGS is a survivor and that some may look beyond ~18 months with terrible earnings, but investors should be able to buy this quality name at lower levels. Our 2020/21 revenue estimates are down ~16%
Pre-funding and late sales revenues in line with pre-announced figures EBITDA inline, EBIT of USD -19m (CS USD 13m) and net profit at USD -27m FCF negative USD 21m or NOK 2 per share (neg NOK 7/share ink divi) Highlights very challenging market conditions – estimates at risk
TGS is one of very few oil service companies that we believe will deliver a solid FCF yield in 2020, which clearly supports the new dividend level. Although our 2020 revenue estimate is 38% below the 2019 level, TGS will manage to deliver a FCF yield of almost 7%. In 2022 the FCF yield is forecasted at +10% even with a revenue estimate 22% below 2019 levels. We reiterate Buy with a target of NOK 180 (190). The stock trades 50% below historical average on P/B.
Q1 revenues of USD 152m vs. consensus at USD 162m Quality of earnings weak with late sales at USD 65m – down 48% YOY 2020 mc spending guidance USD 325 (previous USD 450m, Arctic 350m) Q1 dividend USD 0.125 vs. previous guidance 0.375
Q1 revenue update Wednesday morning – Arctic in line with consensus We expect dividend reduction – USD 0.2/quarter vs. guidance at 0.375 New mc 2020 guidance expected at USD 350m (current USD 450m) Bearish market comments expected – TGS in a unique position, though
TGS is in a unique position vs the majority of other oil service companies. Firstly, the company has a net cash position above USD 300m and secondly TGS has a flexible business model which can be trimmed immediately towards a brutally low activity level and still deliver positive FCF. As such, TGS is a survivor. We cut our estimates considerably and lower our target price to NOK 190. We reiterate Buy supported by an all-time low P/B and strong FCF support.
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Tiger Resources (TGS). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.
Edison
On 10 January, Tiger announced that it had achieved production for FY16 of 23,119t of copper cathode. While this was within updated guidance of 23.0-23.6kt, it was below earlier guidance of 25.0-26.5kt after a number of setbacks curtailed output. While 2016 therefore witnessed management fighting a series of metaphorical fires, an elegant solution to the central metallurgical problems, utilising the newly established tank leach capacity from the earlier de-bottlenecking exercise, has stabilised
Centamin | Minera IRL | Nyrstar | Vast Resources | Tiger Resources
Companies: 0RH8 TGS VAST MIRL CEY
SP Angel
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on TGS ASA. We currently have 0 research reports from 4 professional analysts.
Companies: FTC NANO BBB
Cavendish
Alphawave announced a third consecutive quarter of bookings over US$100m with bookings for 2Q24 of US$107m, up 27% YoY. The company also had a record quarter for design wins with 14 in total from new and existing customers, several of which were for hyperscalers and leading semiconductor companies. Wins included not just those for the company's advanced connectivity products but also for its new ARM-based compute chiplet solutions, as the company broadens out its product offering. Evidence conti
Companies: Alphawave IP Group PLC
Capital Access Group
Companies: Intercede Group plc (IGP:LON)Cornish Metals Inc. (CUSN:LON)
Through a buy and build strategy, Learning Technologies Group (LTG) has established a distinctive international position in corporate e-learning with a broad range of software and service offerings. LTG has been growing apace and profit margins have been rising strongly. The recent acquisition of LMS provider NetDimensions is the last major piece in the technological jigsaw. Attractive growth drivers and synergies from the NetDimensions acquisition put the company in a strong position to generat
Companies: Learning Technologies Group Plc
Joiners DSW Capital plc (DSW.L) a profitable, fast growing, mid-market, challenger professional services network joins AIM. DSW operates a licencing model and licences the DSW and associated brand names in return for a royalty based on a percentage of fee income. Public Policy Holding Company (PPHC.L) leading bi-partisan, full-service US government affairs business joins AIM. Through its wholly-owned companies, PPHC operates a portfolio of independent firms that offer public affairs, crisis mana
Companies: OHG RUA SAR ZOO PCA CCS SRC GDLF
Hybridan
21 February 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objec
Companies: SLP AXL BGO ZOO VRS SPR
28th April 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object
Companies: TGIF BEM WYN ZOO SDX TM17 GDLF
Alphawave Semi supplies cutting edge connectivity solutions for the world's most demanding applications in digital infrastructure. Over the last two years the business has been transformed and it now licences its Intellectual Property (IP), supplies custom silicon and, from 2024, should supply optical connectivity silicon. The company generated revenue of US$185m in 2022 and is targeting growth to cUS$500m by 2025 with a consensus forecast of 102% pa growth in pre-tax profit over the period. Whi
Alphawave's shares have recovered almost half of the losses experienced when forward guidance to 2025 was reduced in April. Following what was a difficult set of FY23 results, the company's recent Capital Market's Day (CMD) set out a powerful case for a continuation of the recovery in the share price, amplifying the group's potential to ride the magic carpet of hyperscaler driven demand for its connectivity Intellectual Property (IP) and its products. Not only were estimates for total addressabl
At its recent Capital Market's Day (CMD - see our note from 5th June), Alphawave announced itself as the first company to deliver chiplets leveraging Arm's Neoverse computing technology offering scalable, interchangeable and customisable solutions to its customers. Alphawave has now formally launched this advanced chiplet built on Arm Neoverse Compute Subsystems which is targeted at artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-performance compute, data centre, and 5G/6G networking infrastructu
Touchstar is a supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services to a variety of industrial sectors. This morning's full year results reflect the outcome of a multi-year strategy coming to fruition for the group, with recurring revenue growth of 8.7% delivering overall revenue growth of 7.1% and in turn a 60% increase in PBT to £0.7m. Over the past few years, Touchstar has focused on enhancing the returns from their product offering through a shift towards recurring software licen
Companies: Touchstar plc
Zeus Capital
Devolver has attracted strategic interest and raised $10m at a 10% share price premium. We believe this transaction, combined with peers’ strong trading updates and positive market data, could indicate the early stages of sector recovery and undervaluation. Devolver’s shares trade at only 11x ex-cash PE and 9x EV/ Adjusted EBIT for 2026
Companies: Devolver Digital, Inc.
FY24 Adjusted EBITDA was slightly ahead of consensus estimates, while revenue and net cash were in line. We leave our above consensus FY25 and FY26 estimates unchanged and see room for outperformance. We believe Cyber Security market growth and the trend towards managed services remains strong, while the Technical Assurance Services (TAS) unit’s drag on group growth should reduce significantly in FY25. We continue to see multiple opportunities for improvement remaining in the company’s turnaroun
Companies: NCC Group plc
Beeks inks a multi-year contract extension at the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The contract was first signed in September 2023, with the first extension in March 2024; the momentum reflects stronger-than-expected customer demand from JSE clients – this is a profit centre for JSE. The service is available at the JSE's Teraco data centre, addressing additional regulatory requirements for dual location disaster recovery (customer upselling). The value was not disclosed; guidance is that the contrac
Companies: Beeks Financial Cloud Group Plc
Progressive Equity Research
GetBusy’s FY23 results show organic revenue growth of +10% to £21.1m, FY23 adjusted EBITDA +£0.1m ahead of our +£0.3m upgrade at the January trading update, and a promising outlook that leads us to reiterate our FY24E forecasts. At constant currency, ARR grew +10% yoy to £20.5m, recurring revenue grew +12% to £20.3m, and net revenue retention of 100.0% per month reflects upselling and price increases, with gross monthly churn of 0.8% per month vs 0.9% in FY22. Within SmartVault, the July 2023 la
Companies: GetBusy Plc