Reported EPS of $0.18 fell short of our $0.37 estimate due to lower-than-expected revenue and margins.
Total revenue of $935 million was down 9.9% year over year and missed of our $970 million forecast due to reduced client demand from U.S. federal government customers and certain large customers.
Management commented that for 4Q:25, total company revenue would decline 12%-14% year over year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 3%.
We reduce our EPS estimates to $1.62 (from $2.03) in 2025, $1.74 (from $2.56) in 2026 and introduce our estimate of $2.20 in 2027.
Our free cash flow per share (excluding the add back of stock-based compensation expense) estimates of $2.11 (from $3.16) in 2025, $2.57 (from $3.69) in 2026 and $2.99 in 2027 imply respective FCF yields of 22.5%, 27.5% and 31.9%.
Our new $20 price target is based on 9x our 2027 EPS estimate of $2.20. Our prior $26 price target was based on 10x our previous 2026 EPS estimate of $2.56. Our reduced multiple is due to the expanded time horizon to our 2027 estimate. We view the multiple as appropriate as it represents an 18% discount to the average forward 12-month P/E multiple of 11x over the last decade. Free cash flow generation and an attractive balance sheet further support the multiple and our moderate risk rating, in our view.
07 Nov 2025
Reported 3Q:25 EPS Missed Our Estimate By $0.19 Due To Revenue And Margin Shortfalls; We Reduce Our 2025-2026 Estimates On Lower Client Activity; Trim Price Target To $20 (From $26)
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Reported 3Q:25 EPS Missed Our Estimate By $0.19 Due To Revenue And Margin Shortfalls; We Reduce Our 2025-2026 Estimates On Lower Client Activity; Trim Price Target To $20 (From $26)
KELLY SERVICES INC -A (KELYA:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
07 Nov 2025 -
Author:
Marc Riddick, CFA -
Pages:
10 -
Reported EPS of $0.18 fell short of our $0.37 estimate due to lower-than-expected revenue and margins.
Total revenue of $935 million was down 9.9% year over year and missed of our $970 million forecast due to reduced client demand from U.S. federal government customers and certain large customers.
Management commented that for 4Q:25, total company revenue would decline 12%-14% year over year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 3%.
We reduce our EPS estimates to $1.62 (from $2.03) in 2025, $1.74 (from $2.56) in 2026 and introduce our estimate of $2.20 in 2027.
Our free cash flow per share (excluding the add back of stock-based compensation expense) estimates of $2.11 (from $3.16) in 2025, $2.57 (from $3.69) in 2026 and $2.99 in 2027 imply respective FCF yields of 22.5%, 27.5% and 31.9%.
Our new $20 price target is based on 9x our 2027 EPS estimate of $2.20. Our prior $26 price target was based on 10x our previous 2026 EPS estimate of $2.56. Our reduced multiple is due to the expanded time horizon to our 2027 estimate. We view the multiple as appropriate as it represents an 18% discount to the average forward 12-month P/E multiple of 11x over the last decade. Free cash flow generation and an attractive balance sheet further support the multiple and our moderate risk rating, in our view.