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  • 17 May 19

LIBERUM: Staffline* - Unscheduled statement: estimates reduced

We are reducing 2019 and 2020 FD EPS by 46% and 17%. We increase FY net debt from £52m to £85m (net debt /EBITDA of 3.0x) for FY 2019.

Companies: Staffline Group
  • 23 May 19

Positive trading update, new factory progressing to schedule

We note the announcement this morning by Strix, confirming it continues to trade in line with market expectations, as previously announced at the time of the FY18 results (21st March 2019). It has also confirmed that the group has signed an agreement with the Zengcheng Government regarding a land purchase and construction of the group’s new factory is scheduled to start at the end of Q3 this year, this is in line with expectations. The impact of this new factory is already built into forecasts and its effect was discussed in a ZC note published on the same day as the FY18 results. Despite c. £25.0m of investment over the next two years, net debt will remain c. 1.0x EBITDA. Dividend growth of 10% to 7.7p in FY19 yields 4.8% with the shares trading on 10.6x earnings in FY20.

Companies: Strix Group
  • 17 May 19

Upgrades to forecasts, release of FY22E numbers

Following FY19A results last week, we upgrade FY20E and FY21E forecasts to reflect an increase in business momentum. We increase FY20E revenues by 3.0% to £48.6m, and adjusted PBT 6.7% to £5.6m. For FY21E we nudge up revenues by 1.3% albeit keep earnings broadly flat. Our newly released FY22E forecasts expect £62.3m of revenues and £7.2m Adj. PBT. We increase our PT to 520p from 460p (set by DCF) on updated forecasts, yet remain Neutral.

Companies: Keystone Law
  • 11 Apr 19

Quarterly Research Outlook

We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.

Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GOR GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR PARK PGM PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 21 May 19

Forecast upgrades

GYG has released a trading update this morning confirming that they have seen a positive uplift in trading at the start of the year and expect full year results to be ahead of current market expectations. The core refit business has seen continued improvements in the trading environment in the first four months of the year and further progress in the New Build segment has also contributed positively to the group’s performance. We are upgrading our forecasts as a result, and now expect adj. EBITDA in 2019E of €3.3m (vs. €3.0m previously) with adj. PBT of €1.6m (vs. €1.3m previously). In our view, this is an encouraging update and is further evidence that the trading environment in refit continues to improve as demand begins to normalise. Even on upgraded forecasts, our 2021E expectations remain 21% below the 2017 outturn at the adjusted PBT level highlighting the extent of a geared recovery on offer.

Companies: GYG
  • 20 May 19

Sustainable development

We believe leading engineering and construction group nmcn will benefit from sustainable earnings growth, supported by environmental investment and a trend among customers seeking more stable, long-term partners after Carillion’s failure. The cash-positive group’s strategy prioritises margins, cash generation and risk management to prevent recurrence of loss-making legacy contracts. Based on what we believe to be conservative estimates, the shares are trading on a FY 2019E P/E of 10.3x and yield of 3.5%.

Companies: NMCN Plc
  • 22 May 19

Cenkos: Marlowe Plc - Strategic acquisition

The prospective acquisition of Clearwater (£11m EV) significantly strengthens Marlowe's core Water division, creating a c£75m revenue leading player in the Water Treatment & Hygiene market. The acquisition and associated restructuring costs will be funded from a £20m capital raise. Relative to existing market forecasts, earnings accretion exceeding 10% is likely by FY21E as synergies are unlocked.

Companies: Marlowe
  • 23 May 19

LIBERUM: HomeServe* - The US continues to drive growth

FY19 EPS grew by 12% yoy, to 37.0p, driven by 37% CC EBIT growth in the US, now the largest division by EBIT, and despite increased investment in Home Experts. Net debt increased to £305m, due to Tranche 2 of Dominion and smaller HVAC acquisitions.

Companies: Homeserve
  • 23 May 19

Trading update: continued growth in revenue, profits and investment

Gateley’s FY’19 trading update indicates an in line performance, and highlights: the group’s strengths in depth and breadth; attractive growth in revenue and profits while continuing to invest for the future; ability to integrate acquisitions; and the exciting opportunities for future expansion. With these facets in mind and an indication that the FY’19 dividend payout may exceed our expectation, the valuation attractions of the shares are compelling, in our view.

Companies: Gateley
  • 23 May 19

FY19 Trading update in-line; move to Neutral

Gateley have released a trading update this morning for FY19E (YE April), confirming the company to be in-line with full year expectations. The Company guide to revenue no less than £102m (Arden est. £102m), Adj. EBITDA no less than £19m (Arden est. £19.6m) and reported PAT no less than £13m (Arden est. £12.7m).

Companies: Gateley
  • 20 May 19

Focus on cashflow pays dividends

Leading brickmaker Forterra has increased its dividend pay-out guidance, reflecting the strong cashflow that has been a hallmark of the group since it floated in 2016. Today’s AGM statement confirmed “in line” trading and highlighted: “encouraging” housebuilding; good progress on the planned new brick plant; and improved productivity at the temporarily constrained Bison Precast business, acquired in 2017. We are making no changes to our estimates at this point, other than to raise our dividends by 12.5%, giving a FY 2019E yield of 4.3%.

Companies: Forterra
  • 22 May 19

British Steel Uncertainty

Noting recent media commentary regarding the uncertain future of British Steel, Hargreaves has this morning set out the Group’s potential exposure as a supplier to the business. Hargreaves has provided materials handling and other services to British Steel’s operations for almost 8 years, employing approximately 170 people in those operations. In the event that British Steel is unable to continue trading, Hargreaves has identified a possible total exceptional charge of c.£9m, resulting from a combination of WIP, trade receivables and other asset write downs, as well as related redundancy/employment costs. We estimate the cash impact of this would be c.£7.5m, most of which would be felt in FY20. Additionally, if British Steel ceases trading, Hargreaves’ revenue in FY20 could reduce by up to £11m and PBT by £1.3m. It goes without saying that this will ultimately be determined by British Steel’s position and ongoing viability. A further update will be provided as appropriate. Hargreaves’ year end trading update will follow on 5th June.

Companies: Hargreaves Services
  • 27 Mar 19

Rally seen in the first quarter stalls

Parliamentary and Brexit developments continue to hold centre stage, although the precise path forward remains as unclear as ever. The uncertainty over Brexit, worries over a possible slowdown in the US and the outlook for global economic growth generally have all contributed to the recent falls in markets. While the rally seen since the start of the year has petered out, most indices have still made progress. In Share News & Views we comment on Bloomsbury Publishing, Bonhill Group*, Braemar Shipping Services*, Burford, Clarkson, LightwaveRF*, Marshall Motor Holdings and Synectics*.

Companies: AOR APC BONH BMS CTG CRPR DMTR ESC EUSP FDM FA/ LWRF LSAI NKTN PCF SNX TCN VRE W7L

  • 28 Mar 19

LIBERUM: Volex* - FCF in transformation

For the second time this year a positive trading statement prompts us to raise our FY19 & FY20 EPS by 8% & 4% respectively. The company now expects FY19 revenues to exceed $365m and continues to highlight substantial opportunities to improve margin performance.

Companies: Volex
  • 16 Apr 19

Q1 2019 AIM Review

2019 started well for investors with U.S. stocks rallying on the back of trade talks between China and the U.S. resuming. Sterling rebounded in Q1 2019 as expectations built the UK would avoid a “no deal” Brexit, providing a further tailwind to more internationally focused UK companies. This sentiment spread across the globe and filtered its way down into small caps.

Companies: PRSM KMK SYS RAI MNO CCS MANO CBOX KGH