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  • 14 Nov 19

Evolving investment case - the next phase

While the FY20 interims are in-line, this does not tell the whole story with the investment case for Volex evolving away from the recovery mode of the last few years to a growth business which now focuses on cash generative, higher margin customers in new markets. The business is substantially de-risked with the top three customers now accounting for 25% of revenues – down from 47% in FY15 and when combined with a re-iteration of our PBT growth forecast of 47% for FY20, an upgrade to our expected net cash estimate from US$17m to US$23m at March 2020, a restored dividend and with it trading on a FY20 PE rating of just 10x, we re-iterate our buy recommendation with a price target of 160p.

Companies: Volex
  • 14 Nov 19

Strong interim results

Volex has announced results for the 26 weeks to 29th September 2019 that reflect management’s focus on operational efficiency, cost control and margin analysis to drive business at acceptable margins. Adjusted PBT and EPS(FD) rose 69.3% and 48.3% respectively with benefit captured from targeted acquisitions. The Group has also returned to the dividend list with the payment of a 1p interim dividend, the first since 2013. On a calendarised basis the shares currently trade at a 34% PER and 36% EV/EBITDA discount to a comparable peer group for 2020. The Board has reiterated its confidence in delivering its full year expectations and in its ability to drive shareholder value.

Companies: Volex
  • 13 Nov 19

Full year results, first look

Avon Rubber has announced FY results comfortably ahead of consensus with the Group describing a transformational year in 2019 which sets it up well for the medium term. We see the Group as well positioned given its end markets and product development which should be attractive for investors but the recent stock run-up has been strong and valuation appears full. Neutral.

Companies: Avon Rubber
  • 14 Nov 19

LIBERUM: Luceco* - Initiation - Entering a new growth phase

Structural changes now enable Luceco’s business model to generate higher FCF levels & transform the balance sheet from high to low debt. Thus, for the first time since IPO, regular M&A is now possible.

Companies: Luceco
  • 13 Nov 19

LIBERUM: Speedy Hire* - Strategy delivering growth and increasing resilience

Speedy delivered a 20% increase in underlying H1 PBT; a 4% beat on our forecast basis. Revenue growth of 6% was driven by contributions from powered access and training acquisitions, market share gains among smaller customers (SMEs) and strong organic growth in services, offsetting lost sales to Carillion and some softness in the market.

Companies: Speedy Hire
  • 11 Nov 19

Concept now proven!

Thruvision’s ultra-sensitive ‘body-heat’ cameras can detect hidden items (guns, drugs, money or stolen goods) without intrusive or time-consuming searches, and without revealing personal anatomical details. The products are gaining acceptance in a range of key markets, and the group’s financial performance is beginning to show the fruits of this labour. This note summarises the product, its advantages, and goes on to describe the markets which appear to hold most promise, and the growing evidence of success.

Companies: Thruvision Group
  • 12 Nov 19

LIBERUM: Ricardo* - Growth to accelerate in FY20

We continue to see significant upside in Ricardo shares. Organic growth is set to accelerate in FY20, and this will be complemented by almost a full year’s contribution from both Transport Engineering and PLC Consulting, which together will add over 10% to group earnings this year.

Companies: Ricardo
  • 14 Nov 19

Strong interim results

Volex has announced results for the 26 weeks to 29th September 2019 that reflect management’s focus on operational efficiency, cost control and margin analysis to drive business at acceptable margins. Adjusted PBT and EPS(FD) rose 69.3% and 48.3% respectively with benefit captured from targeted acquisitions. The Group has also returned to the dividend list with the payment of a 1p interim dividend, the first since 2013. On a calendarised basis the shares currently trade at a 34% PER and 36% EV/EBITDA discount to a comparable peer group for 2020. The Board has reiterated its confidence in delivering its full year expectations and in its ability to drive shareholder value.

Companies: Volex
  • 15 Nov 19

Back to basics

We believe now is an interesting time to invest in Northgate, with a new executive board and a capable management team in place who have already delivered progress on an ongoing turnaround as we await a full strategic review. The group now has a clear and well communicated capital allocation strategy in place and improved earnings quality, in our view. We believe that the growth opportunity in the UK, the value of the Spanish business and the progress made to date with the turnaround are not being reflected in the share price, which is currently 15.9% below book value (414p per share in FY19A rising to 468p in FY22E). We use a variety of valuation methods including P/B, SOTP, DDM and DCF modelling and arrive at an average implied share price of 450p, 29.0% above the current share price.

Companies: Northgate
  • 21 Oct 19

Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 13 Nov 19

H1: increase in the EPS guidance

SSE realised a good set of H1 19 results, driven by new renewables capacity and favourable weather conditions. However, the transmission and distribution activites decreased sharply, but were partially compensated by the good results in gas distribution. The group increased by 3.6% the mid-point of the FY20e EPS guidance.

Companies: SSE
  • 10 Sep 19

1H reveals quality growth

Interim results confirm that the integration of Defaqto has and continues to progress well and the enlarged Group significantly increasing the scale of the Group. The Group now serves >6,000 intermediaries and >350 financial institutions. The statement notes that, including the 3-month contribution from Defaqto, there has been material P&L growth:  Group revenues rose 20% 1H on 1H to £29.1m (1H18 revenue: £24.2m);  Adj EBITDA grew 30% to £6.8m (1H18 adj EBITDA: £5.2m);  Adj PBT rose 34% to £5.9m (1H18: £4.4m);  Adj PAT rose 41% to £4.9m;  Adj EPS was 5.23p and the Board declared an interim DPS of 1.41p. Group net debt was £30.1m at 30 June 2019. This is “in line with expectations, after scheduled payment of a £1.6m dividend in April” and after the capital raising and payments for the Defaqto acquisition in March.

Companies: Simplybiz
  • 04 Nov 19

THE MONTHLY November 2019

The trade-off in the risk/reward for gold and gold mining equities is improving, as central banks push the current iteration of the post-World War II Bretton Woods financial order towards its limits.

Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB BUR CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR MCL MUR NSF PCA PIN SRE PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SCE TON SHED VTA W7L

  • 13 Nov 19

Capital Markets Day takeaways. Reiterate Buy.

We provide our three key takeaways from yesterday’s CMD. Strong legal precedent: Anexo’s unique model hinges upon an individual’s right to replacement vehicle following a road traffic accident that was not their fault. More specifically, Anexo services the impecunious customer who would be unable to pay the up-front costs of vehicle hire, enabling Anexo to reclaim commercial hire rates. At yesterday’s event we were provided an overview of the various developments in case law that have occurred over the last 25 years, each evolution further supporting the model, in our view. Further details within.

Companies: Anexo
  • 15 Nov 19

LIBERUM: Ricardo* - AGM demonstrates diversified business model

Yesterday's AGM provided additional insight into the transformation of Ricardo into a diversified consulting and engineering business. The severe automotive downturn has seen divisional profits fall c.40% in three years, yet group profits have been flat over that period as a result of management's strategy to diversify the group and the delivery of organic and inorganic growth in these non-auto businesses.

Companies: Ricardo