TrueBlue reported 3Q:25 EPS of $0.03, or $0.12 above our expectations, due to revenue and margin outperformance.
Total revenue of $431.3 million bested our $407.2 million estimate and was up 12.8% year over year.
Management provided guidance for 4Q:25 on select line items, including revenue of $399-$424 million, gross margin contraction of 370-410 basis points year over year due to prior year workers' compensation reserve adjustments and revenue mix shifts, and SG&A expenses of $91-$95 million.
Given the pace of general macroeconomic hiring activity, we view our prior 2026 estimates as aggressive.
As a result, we now estimate a loss per share of $0.51 (from a $0.57 loss) in 2025, EPS of $0.49 (from $0.87) in 2026 and introduce our 2027 EPS estimate of $0.88.
Our free cash flow (excluding the add back of stock-based compensation expense) per share estimates of $0.49 (from $0.63) in 2025, $1.17 (from $1.64) in 2026 and $1.69 in 2027 imply FCF yields of 10.5%, 25.1% and 36.1%, respectively.
Our new $10 price target is based on 10x our newly introduced 2027 EPS estimate of $0.88, plus our projected 2027 year-end net cash per share of $0.94. Our prior $11 price target was based on 11x our previous 2026 EPS estimate of $0.87, plus our former 2026 year-end net cash per share estimate of $0.96. On a P/E-only basis, our price target implies an 11.4x multiple to our 2027 EPS estimate. Our reduced multiple is a reflection of the expanded time horizon. Shares of TrueBlue have traded at an average forward P/E multiple of 13.2x over the last decade, slightly below our five-year EPS CAGR of 14%. Our moderate risk rating is based on the solid balance sheet and free cash flow generation.
04 Nov 2025
Reported 3Q:25 EPS Exceeds Our Estimate Due To Revenue And Margin Outperformance; We Reduce Our 2026 Estimate And Introduce Our 2027 Forecast; Trim Price Target To $10 (From $11)
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Reported 3Q:25 EPS Exceeds Our Estimate Due To Revenue And Margin Outperformance; We Reduce Our 2026 Estimate And Introduce Our 2027 Forecast; Trim Price Target To $10 (From $11)
TrueBlue reported 3Q:25 EPS of $0.03, or $0.12 above our expectations, due to revenue and margin outperformance.
Total revenue of $431.3 million bested our $407.2 million estimate and was up 12.8% year over year.
Management provided guidance for 4Q:25 on select line items, including revenue of $399-$424 million, gross margin contraction of 370-410 basis points year over year due to prior year workers' compensation reserve adjustments and revenue mix shifts, and SG&A expenses of $91-$95 million.
Given the pace of general macroeconomic hiring activity, we view our prior 2026 estimates as aggressive.
As a result, we now estimate a loss per share of $0.51 (from a $0.57 loss) in 2025, EPS of $0.49 (from $0.87) in 2026 and introduce our 2027 EPS estimate of $0.88.
Our free cash flow (excluding the add back of stock-based compensation expense) per share estimates of $0.49 (from $0.63) in 2025, $1.17 (from $1.64) in 2026 and $1.69 in 2027 imply FCF yields of 10.5%, 25.1% and 36.1%, respectively.
Our new $10 price target is based on 10x our newly introduced 2027 EPS estimate of $0.88, plus our projected 2027 year-end net cash per share of $0.94. Our prior $11 price target was based on 11x our previous 2026 EPS estimate of $0.87, plus our former 2026 year-end net cash per share estimate of $0.96. On a P/E-only basis, our price target implies an 11.4x multiple to our 2027 EPS estimate. Our reduced multiple is a reflection of the expanded time horizon. Shares of TrueBlue have traded at an average forward P/E multiple of 13.2x over the last decade, slightly below our five-year EPS CAGR of 14%. Our moderate risk rating is based on the solid balance sheet and free cash flow generation.