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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on FIAT CHRYSLER AUTOMOBILES NV. We currently have 13 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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FIAT CHRYSLER AUTOMOBILES NV
FIAT CHRYSLER AUTOMOBILES NV
2016 profits up, but less strong than we had expected
26 Jan 17
FCA’s fully-consolidated delivery volume fell by 3% to 4.48m cars in 2016 (-4% in Q4) and including the volume of at-equity stakes it was down by 0.4% to 4.72m. Consolidated revenue reached €111bn (+0.4%). A better product mix combined with lower purchasing and warranty costs allowed the adjusted EBIT to increase by 26% to just above €6bn and adjusted net earnings by 47% to €2.5bn. Stated net earnings came in at €1.8bn compared to €334m released for 2015. Whereas revenue and EBIT numbers were in line with our projection, the bottom line is clearly lower than our projected €3.2bn. As long as final accounts are not out, we cannot judge whether this discrepancy is the consequence of sharply higher net financial expenses or considerably higher tax charges.
EPA has found a new Dieselgate victim
13 Jan 17
EPA has accused FCA of having implemented a cheating device into some 100,000 3L diesel engines sold in the USA. FCA rejects this claim and instead states that its ‘diesel engines are equipped with state-of-the-art emission control systems hardware’. FCA is looking forward to meeting representatives of the new administration to solve the problem.
Selling cars at discounts via Amazon
21 Nov 16
Fiat is starting to sell some of its cars via Amazon in Italy. It will begin with the Fiat 500, 500L and Panda, and these cars are believed to be sold with a 33% discount. Once the client has found his/her car on Amazon, he/she will be directed to a dealership that can deliver the car.
Management’s higher 2016 guidance still below our expectation
25 Oct 16
FCA reports unchanged revenue of slightly less than €27bn for Q3 and €81.3bn ytd. This was achieved although worldwide shipments were down by 4% to 1.07m vehicles in the last quarter, i.e. the group achieved some ASP improvement. Stated EBIT was up from €225m in Q3 15 to €1.34m and from €2.15bn to €3.71bn ytd. 9M net profit turned around from a loss of €103m to a profit of €1.4bn. Whereas the revenue numbers are only slightly below our expectation, the profit numbers and management’s new guidance suggest that our full-year projections are unlikely to be reached.
2016 targets raised and new 2018 projections unrealistically high
12 Sep 16
Management has raised its 2016 guidance and also increased its 2018 outlook. Revenue and EBIT numbers of €112bn and €5.5bn for the current year are very much in line with our expectations (€113.5bn and €5.4bn, respectively). However, management is overly optimistic for the next two years. By 2018, revenue is expected to reach €136bn (+10% p.a.) and EBIT between €8.7bn and €9.8bn (the middle yields an annual appreciation of 30%). At a time when the US market is likely to be close to its current peak, these projections seem to be wishful thinking. From 2015 to 2018, volume sales of the Jeep brand are expected to increase by 17% annually (from 1.24m units to 2.0m) with the strongest growth rates of some 70% in APAC and LatAm and 30% in EMEA. Besides the American plants, FCA intends to also produce these SUVs in China (two plants) and Italy. The Jeep brand alone cannot contribute sufficiently to the above 2018 revenue number. Other large-volume brands (like Fiat) need to increase their production and sales numbers as well, whereas the Chrysler brand is likely to suffer from the US consumers’ reluctance to buy sedans. Although the group intends to present numerous new models, capex (including capitalised R&D) is expected to remain unchanged at €8.5-9.0bn from 2016 to 2018. This plan, according to management, includes spending to support the development of advanced technologies and to meet regulatory compliance requirements. In fact, as revenue is projected to increase sharply, capex as a percentage of net revenues is expected to decline. Management argues that this is in line with the industry average. Our current projections for the auto industry (including suppliers) see capex (as a percentage of revenue) rising from just below 8% in 2015 to 8.3% by 2018. As a result of the above, management expects net industrial liquidity to turn around from net debt of €5.0bn at the end of 2015 to net cash of €4.0-5.0bn at the end of 2018. Conclusion: we find FCA’s new 2018 targets as being very ambitious indeed. In fact, the expected revenue growth numbers do not match capex projections and legal requirements to fulfill emission requirements. As a consequence, we do not see net liquidity turning around by some €10bn within such a short period of time.
Good earnings numbers in Q1 16
26 Apr 16
On an adjusted basis, i.e. excluding Ferrari, FCA’s deliveries fell by slightly less than 1% to 1,086k vehicles. As the ASPs were, except for EMEA, up in all regions, revenue increased by 3% to €26.6bn. This translated into EBIT of €1.31bn (+88%) and net profit of €478m (from €27m in Q1 15). While the volume and the revenue numbers both fell short of our projections, earnings were higher.
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
Root & branch review – early margin positive
23 Feb 17
Unilever (ULVR LN, HOLD, T/P 3800p) announced yesterday that it will publish the findings of a root and branch review in April 2017. This is stated as being a result of the recent approach made to them by KraftHeinz (KHC US, N/RO), an offer which quickly lapsed.
A compelling global brand roll-out story
22 Feb 17
We believe that SuperGroup remains one of the most undervalued global brand roll-out stories within the UK retail sector. The stock trades at c20% discount to its UK peers on a 1YF EV/EBITDA basis despite best-in-class revenue growth and profit margins. SuperGroup operates a leading multi-channel proposition, has strong sales momentum across each channel and forecast risk remains on the upside. We initiate coverage on the shares with a buy recommendation and price target of 1898p, implying upside of 27.8% over the prevailing market price.
Despite offer lapse, Unilever remains under pressure
20 Feb 17
Unilever (ULVR LN, HOLD, T/P 3800p) announced yesterday that it is no longer subject to a £40 per share offer from KraftHeinz, which valued Unilever at 14x EV/EBITDA and a 24x P/E ratio. The announcement was made jointly with Kraft Heinz. While the offer lapse will probably prompt Unilever’s shares to open lower – they rose 13.3% on Friday – longer term changes may be more positive.