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RA International

Cenkos: RA International Group Plc - Valuation mismatch gone too far

RA International shares have fallen significantly since December 2018 when it announced that several contracts were delayed into early 2019 and stated that revenue and profits for FY18E are expected to be “slightly behind market expectations”. We thus reduced our FY18E revenue and profit forecasts by c10% to reflect these contract timing differences. We left 2019 and 2020 forecasts unchanged given the extensive level of bidding activity undertaken during the year (doubling to cUS$400m between the June 2018 float and September 2018 interims alone) and reference to increased revenue backlog in the trading update. The fundamentals remain intact with RA positioned to win more larger scale contracts with existing and new customers.

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  • 22 Jan 19
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Empyrean Energy

Cenkos: Empyrean Energy Plc - Indonesia Update

Yesterday, Empyrean Energy announced that an independent audit by Gaffney, Cline & Associates (GCA) has estimated 2C contingent resources of 276 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to the Mako gas field, situated in the Duyung PSC, offshore Indonesia. The operator, West Natuna Exploration Limited (WNEL), has converted the Duyung PSC to the new Indonesian Gross Split PSC allowing for greater contractor spending and operational flexibility.

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  • 22 Jan 19
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Circle Property

Cenkos: Circle Property Plc - Sector leading total returns since flotation

The flotation of Circle Property Plc in February 2016 has provided investors with the opportunity to invest in a small, nimble and well-regarded property investment and development company which specialises in opportunistically buying and actively managing provincial offices in undersupplied towns and cities. Circle Property is not a REIT, however as the company's business model requires capital to be retained for value-enhancing refurbishment and development projects – and its success can be illustrated by an outstanding 85% increase in NAV per share in the past 2.5 years.

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  • 21 Jan 19
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Cloudcall Group

Cenkos: CloudCall Group Plc - Excellent partner testimonial

The Capital Markets Day highlighted the positive market dynamics and large addressable market CloudCall is successfully selling into. Customer testimonials point to considerable potential upside in both the US and Europe. New products and future CRM partnerships enlarge this still further. We remain Buyers.

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  • 21 Jan 19
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Eddie Stobart Logistics

Cenkos: Eddie Stobart Logistics Plc - Strong revenue growth

Revenue growth has come in well ahead of expectations at an impressive 18% underlying and 35% including acquisitions. With more new business to digest than expected, margin has not recovered as quickly as we had hoped. Our 2017/18 EBIT forecast is trimmed from £59.6m to £57m, in line with consensus. Fully diluted EPS are expected to grow by the highteens. Because of macro uncertainties, we are aiming off with our Year 2 forecast, but still forecasting high-teens growth, underwritten in large part by contracts won over the last year. Thus, despite our trim there's plenty of growth on offer.

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  • 18 Jan 19
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Smart Metering Systems

Cenkos: Smart Metering Systems Plc - New customer win

Smart Metering Systems (SMS) has signed a new meter rental agreement with Octopus Energy to supply a minimum of 200,000 SMETs2 meters. Octopus has over 400,000 customers and has been growing at an average rate of 30,000 per month. Given its strength of funding and installation capacity, SMS is strongly placed to win further market share from energy suppliers yet to commence smart metering activity. These suppliers will be under intense regulatory scrutiny, with the SMETs1 end-date delays past being an acceptable excuse not to have meaningfully commenced rollout. Our base case DCF valuation analysis implies a share price of 1025p, c86% ahead of the current level.

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  • 17 Jan 19
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