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(Almost) Daily Market News Update

As we pointed out in our “Green shoots in China” report several weeks ago, we were expecting the Chinese economy to do quite well in the near term given the high amount of stimulus injected into the economy this year. This view has received some confirmation from the first quarter GDP, industrial production and retail sales data. Chinese GDP growth against the expectations of economists did not slow down from the fourth quarter 2018 because of a massive boost in industrial production. Industrial production grew 8.5% year-on-year, way above the 5.9% expected growth rate and in fact the fastest growth since 2014. Retail sales also beat expectations, though only moderately. Overall, this points to continued near-term strength in the Chinese economy but it also has its flipside. As we pointed out before, most of the stimulus in China is focused on old drivers of growth like infrastructure projects and industrial growth, which means that existing imbalances in China are not deflating but growing again.

  • 17 Apr 19
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Commodities - EnergyCommodities - Metals & MiningEconomic DataIndices and MarketsForeign ExchangeCommodities - EnergyCommodities - Metals & MiningEconomic DataIndices and MarketsForeign ExchangeCommodities - EnergyCommodities - Metals & MiningEconomic DataIndices and MarketsForeign ExchangeCommodities - EnergyCommodities - Metals & MiningEconomic DataIndices and MarketsForeign ExchangeCommodities - EnergyCommodities - Metals & MiningEconomic DataIndices and MarketsForeign ExchangeCommodities - EnergyCommodities - Metals & MiningEconomic DataIndices and MarketsForeign ExchangeCommodities - EnergyCommodities - Metals & MiningEconomic DataIndices and MarketsForeign ExchangeCommodities - EnergyCommodities - Metals & MiningEconomic DataIndices and MarketsForeign ExchangeCommodities - EnergyCommodities - Metals & MiningEconomic DataIndices and MarketsForeign Exchange

(Almost) Daily Market News Update

The Empire Manufacturing index in the US did exactly what was expected, just more so. Instead of rising from 3.7 points to 8.0 points it rose to 10.1 points. All the concurrent indicators rose, but the increase in inventories and hours worked was particularly strong indicating that the job market remains tight while business remains solid for now. However, the outlook worsened significantly as the amount of unfilled orders declined and the general business outlook six months ahead dropped sharply from 29.6 points to 12.4 points, the lowest level in more than three years and, if we ignore the low of early 2016, the lowest level since the financial crisis. Overall, the indicator again confirms our view of a general slowdown in the US economy.

  • 16 Apr 19
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