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05 May 2023
Arctic: Kahoot - Downside risk to guidance and consensus

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Arctic: Kahoot - Downside risk to guidance and consensus
We see no fundamental changes to our investment case post Q1 earnings and thus reiterate HOLD. However, we have slightly increased our target price to NOK 20 (18) on favourable FX and marginally higher adj. EBITDA. As we anticipated, the slowdown in ARR resulted in Q2 revenue guidance falling below consensus. This reinforces our concern regarding the downside risk to FY23 revenue guidance which is expected by consensus. Furthermore, we believe that there is downside risk to 2024 consensus estimates, which project accelerating revenue growth and continued low investment/opex growth. As the stock trades at 18x consensus ‘23e adj. EBITDA we struggle to find upside to multiples as well.