With NII making up 74% of our total income estimate for 2025 and with the majority of the bank’s income stemming from SEK, SHB should feel the impact of 3 rate cuts in Q4 in Sweden. On the flipside it should be the bank in our space that would theoretically benefit the most from Swedish rates bottoming out, perhaps already in H1/25. The share has been strong in the past three months – likely in part due to a stronger than expected NII print in Q3 - and has risen by 17%, and we thus think that so ....
