Despite record high gas prices, estimates have been raised significantly on the back of firm nitrogen prices, particularly CAN. Yara will release its Q4 results on 8 February and we expect an EBITDA (YAR def.) of USD 1,011m vs consensus at USD 737m. There is high uncertainty however over the figures due to low visibility on NPK margins and volumes. We upgrade the stock to Hold (Sell) and believe prospects for higher dividends will provide downside support.
