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13 Jun 2024
100 questions into the Capital Markets Day

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100 questions into the Capital Markets Day
- Published:
13 Jun 2024 -
Author:
Lim Joan JL | Tang Nicola NT -
Pages:
41 -
Capital Markets Day on 18th June
This will be Novonesis'' first CMD since the merger in late January. The event will focus on integration, synergies, financials and the power of the combined technology platform.
Expect some colour on growth drivers beyond 2025
We expect a focus on key growth drivers as Novonesis has strongly hinted that the combination should accelerate growth on a longer term time horizon. Management has not committed to providing new mid-term targets (beyond 2025) although we view this as necessary to justify the merger rationale as the existing targets only offer marginal upside compared to previous standalone targets.
Mainly an educational event, unlikely to drive upgrades. We remain below consensus
We suspect there may be limited new financial disclosure; management has committed to providing further PF detail with H1 (28th August). At this early stage, we don''t see the CMD as a catalyst for upgrades. Consensus is already giving them benefit of the doubt on a sustained superior organic growth rate of ~7% to 2028 (within its existing target of 6-8% but above 10-year historic PF growth of 6%) and 100bps of EBITDA margin expansion by 2028, beyond its 2025 target of ~37%.
Synergy update: cost side progressing well, we expect revenue synergies to be long dated
Management targets EUR160-180m of EBIT synergies, of which ~50% are related to costs and ~50% to revenues. Management may upgrade/pull forward its cost synergies which are progressing well. However, we still believe revenue synergies will be long dated given the limited portfolio overlap.
Shares already trading at a premium to specialty peers; reiterate Underperform
We stick to our Underperform rating as we are cautious on the sustainability of Novonesis'' LT organic growth outlook given its exposure to mature end markets and our view that revenue synergies could be long dated. Shares are trading on 31x 2025 PE, at a 20% premium to Specialty Ingredients peers.