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23 Jul 2025
1H25 results: steady print, earnings expected upper-end of guidance

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1H25 results: steady print, earnings expected upper-end of guidance
What happened?
Gecina has published 1H25 results. Key figures are: GRI +3.8% LfL to EUR360m, RNI/sh +6.4% to EUR3.38, EPRA NTA +1.1% to EUR144.3 and FY25 RNI/sh now expected to be at the upper end of guidance range of EUR6.65-6.70. This compares to consensus EUR6.65 and BNPPE EUR6.59.
BNPP Exane View:
Overall a steady print underpinned by strength of the central Paris portfolio. Key positives we see are: i) improved portfolio occupancy driven by central offices and residential, ii) the 27 Canal pre-letting for 74% of space ahead of completion in H2, and iii) soft upgrade to guidance driven by more certainty on leasing and occupancy for the year. The negatives are: i) Decline in capital values for all segments of the office portfolio excluding central, and ii) -7.7% LfL GRI for ''other location'' offices, driven by cheap leases to support occupancy. On a run rate basis, H1 earnings are ahead of FY25 guidance, but H2 will be lower due to residential disposals including the student portfolio. On balance, we think the results are a marginal positive and sufficient to support the stock.
KEY FIGURES
GRI: +3.8% LfL and 0.6% above indexation to EUR359.9, including offices +4.1% and residential +2.0% LfL. Within offices LfL growth rates were, central locations +8.0%, core Western Crescent -2.2%, La Defense +4.7% and others (including inner and outer rims) -7.7%.
OCCUPANCY: Office +60bps to 94.2%, driven by central locations +40bps to 96.2%. The only region down was La Defense 20bps to 98.8%. Residential portfolio occupancy was (ex-student) was +120bps to 93.0%
REVERSION: +9% uplifts on new office leases and renewals, +25% in Paris City and up to +25% in CBD
EARNIGNS: RNI/sh +6.4% to EUR3.38. FY25 expected to be at the upper end of EUR6.65-6.70 range. Top of this range implies 4.4% earnings growth.
PORTFOLIO VALUTION: +1.6% LfL comprising: offices +1.8% and driven by central locations +2.9% offsetting declining values in all other regions of -0.6-2.3%, and residential +0....