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31 Jul 2025
1H25: Vive la continuité

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1H25: Vive la continuité
- Published:
31 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Pearson Stuart SP | Perry Sam SP -
Pages:
15 -
After the Renaulution, continuity is the priority for new CEO Provost. But holding margins as competition builds won''t be easy, even with a sharpened cost focus. We cut ''25/26e EBIT, and our TP, by c.10%. Despite this, Renault''s gearing to rising EU policy support keeps us at Outperform.
What did we learn from H1''25?
After De Meo''s ''Renaulution'', new CEO Provost appears focused on continuity, at least for now. His strategic plan, due at a 1Q26 CMD, may change this, but in the meantime the focus for the (until yesterday) purchasing chief is squarely on driving down costs to protect margins. Savings in H2 are expected to offset price/mix/content pressure, leaving this balance positive for the FY. This means that H2 should see a positive 70bp margin support from these items, versus a 60bp headwind in H1. This, together with improved June orders and sales to partners in H2, should help lift auto margins from just 4.0% in H1, towards close to 6% in H2, we think. Pricing though remains the wildcard, and we estimate an underlying headwind close to 200bp, largely from BEVs and LCV.
How does it change our investment view?
Renault continues to benefit from a fresh product line-up, but it is now a case of running hard to stay still as competition from VW and Chinese OEMs heats up. We see H2''s stronger margin as likely a temporary relief before heading back towards 5% in ''26e. Renault is though well positioned to benefit from increasing policy support in Europe, including the recently announced UK subsidies, the upcoming French social leasing scheme, and the potential for similar schemes EU wide.
EBIT cut by 5/8% for ''25/26e; TP trimmed to EUR54/share
We have cut our ''25/26e EBIT by c.10% to reflect the H1 earnings miss and increasing EU price tension. The latter is partly offset by increased cost saving expectations Our target price falls by 10% to EUR54/share (from EUR60/share), and we retain our Outperform rating.