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24 Apr 2025
1Q25 First take: Reassuringly dull

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1Q25 First take: Reassuringly dull
- Published:
24 Apr 2025 -
Author:
Pearson Stuart SP -
Pages:
9 -
What happened? Renault just reported 1Q25 results. The key highlights are:
New launches were 28.3% if Q1 invoices; Order book remains at c.2 months; EU BEV mix at 13.1%; HEV mix at 31.0%;
Renault will engage in additional proactive cost reduction measures (no further details at this stage)
FY25 Guidance: CONFIRMED
. Group operating margin of =7% (Co cons: 7.1%) (includes c.100bp of -ve CAFE impact)
. Auto FCF =EUR 2bn (Co cons: EUR 2.04bn)
BNPP Exane View: A broadly in line print, albeit with auto revenues a touch light versus consensus, likely on dealer destocking (auto revenues were a touch ahead of our own number which modelled slightly more destock). Price/mix was a +3.5% tailwind (BNPP-E @ 1.5%), helped by new model ramp-up, and a ''phase of price stabilization''. We note however that H2''24 saw a +4% price/mix tailwind, but a -200bp margin headwind from price/mix, reflecting the higher ASP but weaker margins of electrified products. Meanwhile, slightly stronger finance co revenues helped leave group revenues in line with expectations, and guidance was, as expected, confirmed. Renault''s Q1 EU BEV mix of 13.1% may leave the company, like VW, needing to provision for CO2 fines at H1, even if these should be subsequently reversed once the 3 year reprieve is signed into law.
Net Net, a largely uneventful quarter (in a good way), and we expect minimal change to consensus estimates, subject to the call, starting at 7am BST / 8am CEST.
Q1 conference call: Analyst and investor conference call at 0700 UKT (0800 CET). To join the call and participate in the QandA, use this Teams link.