In a nutshell:
CASA 1Q25 numbers were decent with some divisional beats on revenues but posting a 4% miss on costs. The latter was partly explained by stronger revenues in AG and LC, but LCL missed too on top of posting 2% lower revenues than expected. We would note a nice cost of risk beat, while capital at 12.1% is yet to account for a 30bps hit from investments (BAMI stake, Victory Capital).
The bank didn''t update its guidance and we expect some focus on the French Bank today.
We believe the bank''s revenues beats are likely to be tainted by the costs misses, despite the better provisions than anticipated.
Further details and divisional highlights:
Revenues were EUR7.26bn, a 1% beat to consensus EUR7.18bn, growing 7% YoY, 2% QoQ:
. Asset Gathering was 2% ahead at EUR2.06bn, helped by Amundi''s solid results and the integration of Degroof Petercam which had a EUR164m positive perimeter effect.
. LCL was 2% below at EUR963m with flat loans, but some fees growth YoY and slight margin support. Activity seems to be disappointing compared to 4Q24 nice momentum.
. International Retail was 3% ahead at EUR1,025m, driven my most geographies. The 3% decline from 1Q24 is mostly due to a strong YoY comparable in Egypt.
. SFS was 3% below expectations at EUR868m but growing 3% YoY, with good activity and momentum in personal finance.
. CIB was a 4% beat at EUR2.4bn, +7% YoY driven by equities and despite a high YoY comparable. IB and structured finance had the highest growth YoY.
. Corporate centre benefited from the revaluation of BAMI shares.
Costs were EUR3.99bn 4% higher/worse than consensus EUR3.84bn, +9% YoY, +2% QoQ. For both AG and LC, company flagged increases in expenses in relation to stronger revenue performance:
. Asset Gathering: Degroof Petercam added EUR115m and costs were 4% higher than expected.
. French Retail: Costs were 2% higher than anticipated which adds to the revenues miss.
. International Retail costs were broadly in line with...
