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07 May 2025
1Q25 Results: Financials in line, with Italian KPIs improving

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1Q25 Results: Financials in line, with Italian KPIs improving
- Published:
07 May 2025 -
Author:
Mills Joshua JM -
Pages:
9 -
What happened? TI has pre-released 1Q25 results intra-day; financials are in line with cons expectations but Italian KPIs show modest improvement, which we expect to support shares (BNPP estimate c. +1%/+2%)
*Telecom Italia has released 1Q25 results intraday (previously expected after-market) having reported in-line financials for Brazil yesterday (see here).
*Domestic service revenue/EBITDAaL came in +1.3%/-0.8% vs consensus for the domestic business vs. cons (growing +2.1%, +4% respectively).
*Domestic capex came in -4% below consensus, whilst group EFCF after leases came in at -EUR 198m (vs. cons -EUR190m)
*Domestic Consumer service revenues were +0.2% vs cons (-0.1% YoY), with broadband net adds improving vs recent run rate (-34k) and human mobile subs also better vs. the recent trend (-47k). Fixed ARPU was +4% YoY whilst mobile ARPU was flat, with churn in both fixed and mobile 10bp lower YoY.
*Domestic Enterprise service revenues were +0.7% vs. cons (+6.6% YoY) - the growth here was driven by cloud (+56% YoY) with connectivity revenues still -10%.
*TI also includes a slide in their presentation on the recent acquisition of a 24.8% stake in the business by Poste Italiane, highlighting that Poste will act ''as a long term industrial shareholder'' supporting consolidation of the Italian telco market, the migration of Poste''s MVNO to TIO''s network from Jan 2026 (negative for Swisscom) and potential areas of collaboration on cross-selling, ICT solutions etc. We expect this to be discussed in more detail on the call tomorrow.
*TI has reiterated all FY25 and mid term guidance.
BNPP Exane View:
*We see these results as a small incremental positive - whilst financials are broadly in line with expectations, consumer KPIs are showing signs of the improvement we had predicted on the back of our recent STAMP consumer survey
*As detailed in our recent upgrade report Risorgimento, the Telecom Italia investment case remains highly sensitive to a number of...