Key message:
1Q25 sales: -14% organic at group level, ie a 2% miss vs css (-1% vs BNPPE) with -25% organic at Gucci. Group Retail (-16%) saw trends decelerating everywhere with APAC -25% (from -24% in 4Q), Europe -13% (from -8%), North America -13% (from -9%), Japan -11% (from -6%).
2Q25 is guided down DD organic, hopefully a bit less weak than 1Q (-14%). 1H25 group EBIT margin is guided down c500bp y/y (vs down 250-500bp previously) to c12.5% (better than 2H24 which was 11.9%). On the assumption that group sales would be down 13% in 1H25 with margins down 500bp to 12.5%, group 1H25 EBIT would be cEUR1bn. Bloomberg consensus currently forecasts EUR2.3bn in EBIT (BNPPE current estimate at EUR2.1bn) evenly split between 1H and 2H. Once consensus will have taken into account the recent unfavourable FX moves and impacts from tariffs, it would be reasonable for it to stabilise a bit below EUR2bn. Whilst this would imply a 15-20% cut to current consensus, the buyside probably anticipated a large chunk of it, which might limit the magnitude of the share price underperformance tomorrow.
Main points from the release:
Group sales: EUR3,883m (-14% rep, -14% org) vs cons -12% and BNPPE -13%.
Gucci: organic sales -25% y/y (cons -24%, BNPPE -25%) from -24% in 4Q. Wholesale -33%, retail -25%. By region: US -21%, Europe -22%, Japan -19%, APAC -32%, RoW -10%. AUR up driven by mix. Carryovers still a massive drag. 10 DOS closure. Newness expected in 2Q.
Bottega Veneta: organic sales +4% y/y (cons 8%, BNPPE 10%) from +12% in 4Q which management attributes to tough comps. Wholesale -13%, retail +7%. 4 DOS closure. Growth in all categories, increased AUR in mix. HDDs growth in Europe and MEA. Positive trends in Korea leading to APAC -7%.
Saint Laurent: organic sales -9% y/y (cons -8%, BNPPE -10%) from -8% in 4Q. Wholesale -24%, retail -8%. Limited sequential decel from 4Q. APAC -18%. US and Europe -ive HSD. Newness on carryovers ongoing.
Other Houses: organic...
