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24 Apr 2025
1Q25: Sorry about my friends

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1Q25: Sorry about my friends
- Published:
24 Apr 2025 -
Author:
Pearson Stuart SP | Perry Sam SP -
Pages:
15 -
Renault''s drama free Q1 was just the tonic investors needed, and sweetened by the unexpected prospect of price stabilisation. A shame then that the calm was abruptly shattered by a Nissan warning that drives deep cuts to ''25 EPS, even if underlying profits and cash are unaffected. Our positive stance (and dividend forecast) also remain undisturbed. Outperform.
What did we learn from Q1''25?
Renault''s in-line Q1 revenue report and confirmation of FY guidance (7% EBIT margin, EUR2bn FCF) was refreshingly uneventful given turbulent times. Most interesting was the inflection of pricing (on the top-line at least) to a +50bp tailwind, having been a 110bp headwind in Q4. Renault talks of a ''phase of price stabilisation'', which it expects to continue through the year, with H2 margins seen above H1, partly due to Horse synergy effects. EU BEV mix reached 13.1%, which RNO says puts in line with its CO2 compliance plan - it thus sees no need to provision at H1 for any fines (as VW has done in Q1). Incremental cost measures will also be taken, but do not appear to be radical.
How does it change our investment view?
Renault''s Q1 has somewhat eased our concerns over price/mix which had turned into a material headwind in H2. While the drop through to EBIT remains to be seen, the company continues to guide for +ve price/mix net of cost inflation. We thus continue to see margins holding up in the ''mid 7s'' territory, and potentially reaching close to 8% should EU macro survive the tariff storm.
Nissan impairment drives deep non-cash cuts; TP trimmed to EUR61/share
Separately, Nissan today cut its FY3/25 guidance, most notably on the back of a JPY500bn impairment and JPY60bn restructuring charge. This will drive Renault''s H1 to a significant loss optically, and pushes our FY25e adj. EPS down by some 57%. However, the underlying impact is negligible, and cash impact is zero given that we did not assume any Nissan dividend. We thus maintain our Renault FY25 DPS...