While Big Oil earnings momentum is likely to remain negative in 2025, later-cycle Oil Services firms are beginning to hit their straps. Those exposed to advantaged offshore capex and durable gas/LNG growth, with record backlog protection, are in the early innings of growing shareholder returns. We have published our slide pack on the Oil Services 2025 outlook: click here to access the link. Renewed optimism on US OCTG pricing After 21 months of consecutive declines, US OCTG pricing has rebounded 8% since the trough in August. With the Trump administration threatening to impose tariffs on the steel sector, including blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico, there''s room for optimism that lower imports (c40% of supply) will support pricing alongside a more supportive regulatory environment for US drillers. Consensus factors in a 5% y/y decline in Tenaris'' global tubes pricing this year, which appears conservative given the US accounts for c40% of TEN''s sales and US OCTG pricing influences more than half its contracts worldwide. Next drivers of the offshore upcycle With offshore backlogs filling up and utilisation approaching prior peak levels, we''ve had investors question what will drive the next leg up for the offshore installers as order growth slows. We think higher returns on capital, more generous returns of capital, including buybacks, and earnings growth will continue to drive the re-rating back to mid-cycle levels. Lack of conviction on next LNG supply wave The debate on the future of the gas market and the need for another wave of project approvals remains open. On the one hand, a c45% increase in global LNG capacity by 2030 is forecast to tilt the market into oversupply and depress pricing, with potential de-escalation in Ukraine and the return of at least some gas supplies to Europe another negative catalyst for LNG activity. On the other, delays in the current wave of supply under construction and continued momentum in offtake agreements...