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30 Jul 2025
2Q' 25 First take: 5% EBITDA beat

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2Q' 25 First take: 5% EBITDA beat
- Published:
30 Jul 2025 -
Author:
De Cueto Moreno Gonzalo GD -
Pages:
9 -
What happened?
Melia Hotels has just reported its 2Q'' 25 results. The company is holding a conference call at 9am CET tomorrow (link).
BNPP Exane View:
Positive set of results thanks to a very decent 3.6% REVPAR growth, a 5% EBITDA beat, declining financing costs and very positive FCF generation EUR67m during the quarter, above consensus expectations. We would expect a positive reaction at tomorrow''s opening. On the not so bright side, we flag the uncertainty around the performance of hotels in the Caribbean and the negative effect of the depreciation of the USD into FY25 estimates, which in our view has not been yet fully reflected into Consensus figures.
Highlights are as follow:
. Top-line up 5% YoY, with sales at EUR546m, +1.2% above Consensus expectations. OandL REVPAR amounted to EUR128 in 2Q 25 (+3.6% YoY) mainly driven by REVPAR growth in Spain (+5.8%) and Europe (+4.7%).
. Geographically, top contributors were Spain (thanks to Easter and ARR c.+6% YoY) and EMEA (thanks to the good performance of France and Italy) while America was the underperforming region with a REVPAR of -3% (impacted by occupancy down 4% and the close of Paradisus Cancun that has been closed for renovation).
. EBITDA is up 8% YoY, 4.8% above consensus estimates with margins at 28.2%, almost 100bps up YoY.
. Positive cash flow generation of EUR67m during the quarter that drives the total net debt down to EUR2,208m (below consensus estimates of EUR2,220m) and vs the EUR2,275m reported in Q1 25.
. Outlook: Q3 is expected to follow the same dynamics seen in Q2, with Spain being the top contributor thanks to mid-single digit growth in rates YoY. In contrast, EMEA points to weakening results YoY impacted by the Euro Cup and the Olympic Games, both held last year. America seems that is performing better thanks to volumes picking up in Mexico and better air connectivity in the Dominica Republic.
. Key issues to address at the conference call tomorrow: 1) Last minute sales...