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01 Aug 2023
2Q23: Offshore acceleration

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2Q23: Offshore acceleration
- Published:
01 Aug 2023 -
Author:
Thomson Daniel DT -
Pages:
10 -
2Q results met expectations with FY23 guidance confirmed. Orders far exceeded consensus expectations at 1.4x BTB, mostly in the offshore divisions, confirming the continued shift toward a more favourable backlog mix. Order momentum and restart of Moz LNG remain the key catalysts.
What we learned in the quarter
Solid operational performance and improving market conditions saw EBITDA margins reaching double-digits in Asset Based Services and 40% in Offshore Drilling in the quarter, while in the longer-cycle Energy Carriers segment profitability will remain limited but positive this year. cEUR3bn of ''project review'' backlog remains (out of EUR25bn total), with the majority of wind projects to be completed by year-end and the proportion of affected backlog in Energy Carriers to diminish through time (40% of revs in 2Q). With a large award in ABS to be announced imminently and a multi-year deepwater drilling contract under negotiation, the offshore divisions will be operating at or close to maximum capacity in 2024 with available capacity for 2025 diminishing rapidly. Timing of the Mozambique LNG restart remains a question mark, with delay to early 2024 increasingly likely.
How it changes our investment view
Given the de-risking of the offshore wind backlog and strong commercial momentum in the ABS segment (1.9x BTB in 2Q), margins in the division could approach 12% next year, quicker than we''d expected, with the industry remaining disciplined despite capacity constraints. A more selective approach to order intake in EC and delays in the Mozambique LNG project means margin recovery could take longer than we''d previously forecast, though outperformance in the offshore divisions has the potential to more than offset.
Changes to estimates and target price
We lower our revenue and margin forecast within EC over 2023-24 reflecting Mozambique LNG delays and lower backlog coverage, offset by growth in the offshore divisions. We revise our...