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29 Jul 2024
2Q24: Setting up for a stronger 2H

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2Q24: Setting up for a stronger 2H
- Published:
29 Jul 2024 -
Author:
Thomson Daniel DT -
Pages:
10 -
Largely in-line quarter despite softer margins in Energy Carriers and Offshore Drilling
Saipem delivered another quarter of revenue and margin growth y/y, with 1H24 net cash flow running c10% ahead of full-year guidance. Divisionally, ABS continues to lead the recovery, legacy onshore contracts dragged EC margins to breakeven and temporary rig suspensions in Saudi Arabia began to weigh in Offshore Drilling. At the halfway mark, revenue guidance now appears conservative while 2H EBITDA needs to step up c30% sequentially to meet the midpoint of guidance.
De-risking the backlog... in numbers
In a more complex and volatile environment, SPM is actively lowering the level of risk in its contracts. This ''de-risked'' or non-lump-sum proportion within EPC contracts has increased from 6% of pre-2022 awards to 36% of contracts signed YTD, while management does not see a margin trade-off through cycle and continues to target mid-single digit margins over the next 3-4 years.
Working down the worry list: Thai Clean Fuels, Courseulles-sur-Mer and Mozambique detail
A further ''material'' provision on the Thai Clean Fuels project offset a positive contribution from more recently awarded onshore contracts. Testing of the drilling system on location at the last legacy offshore wind project, Courseulles-sur-Mer, is underway with foundation drilling to commence ''in the next few weeks''. Overall, after burning through a further EUR0.5bn of zero-margin legacy backlog in 2Q, only EUR950m (3% of backlog) remains, pointing to imminent margin improvement in the EC division. On Mozambique LNG, SPM clarified that only 20% of the EUR0.5bn in related backlog scheduled for execution in 2024 is at risk if the project is not restarted this year as planned.
Changes to estimates: Small downward EBITDA revisions over 2024-25, TP unchanged
We revise our 2024-25 EBITDA forecasts down 3% on lower EC and Offshore Drilling profitability. We raise our ''24E EV/EBITDA target multiple to 6.0x...