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30 Oct 2023
3Q23: Steady progress
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3Q23: Steady progress
- Published:
30 Oct 2023 -
Author:
Thomson Daniel DT -
Pages:
13 -
What we learned in the quarter
Saipem''s renewed focus on cash generation and profitability is starting to bear fruit, with CFO over 9M23 at the highest level in the last four years and net income last at this level in 2014. After another solid quarter for orders in the ABS division, management''s strategy to shift the group''s backlog to higher-margin offshore end-markets has accelerated, reaching 54% of backlog and up from 33% in 2019. Importantly, work on legacy problematic projects in the Energy Carriers and Offshore Wind segments is progressing as planned, with the weighting down to 8% of total backlog with all projects to be completed by the end of 2024.
How it changes our investment view
We are encouraged by the consistency in the margin and cash performance on legacy backlog review projects as their relative weighting on revenues diminishes from c30% this year into 2024. With margins in ABS gradually increasing despite contracts won in the past 12 months accounting for 10% of group revenues this year, we continue to see upside risk to FY24 EBITDA margins in the division with the zero-margin Courselles-sur-Mer offshore wind project accounting for 5% of revenue. Given a rapidly improving balance sheet, favourable market dynamics and growth in offshore revenues and margins, we are increasingly optimistic that shareholder returns can be reintroduced by the end of next year.
Changes to estimates and target price
We incorporate 3Q23 actuals, the latest management commentary and the potential for share dilution from the recently issued 2029 convertible bond. We revise our 2023 EBITDA estimate 1% lower mainly due to a less favourable mix in Q3. We increase our 2024 and 2025 EBITDA estimates by 2% and 3% respectively to reflect higher order intake in 2H23 thanks to major recent contract awards (incl. Hail and Ghasha). We lift our TP to EUR2.2/sh (from EUR2.15/sh). Outperform.