Solid execution drives upgrades, with focus turning to February business plan update Saipem''s 3Q results were solid, with EBITDA up nearly 50% y/y and good execution driving revenues above consensus as legacy low-margin contracts reduced to EUR0.5bn / 1.5% of backlog. While guided upgrades to FY24 consensus revenue and EBITDA were relatively modest, FCF generation far exceeded expectations, with management noting that robust market demand is likely to exceed its current 2024-27 business plan targets. Attention now turns to FY24 results and the business plan update in February, where SPM will provide detail on the uses of the cEUR1bn of forecast net cash generation remaining after the cEUR600m dividend commitment in the existing plan. With the shares offering c15% FCF yield in 2025 and a dividend yield 3%, we maintain our Outperform rating. Bid opportunities more than replenished with pipeline less exposed to oil price downside Despite record offshore orders in 3Q, SPM''s near-term bidding pipeline increased q/q to EUR54bn. The opportunity set looks resilient to oil price downside risk given 1) c50% relates to upstream gas; 2) c25% relates to energy transition and downstream activities and 3) 30% relates to upstream oil projects, tilted to brownfield rather than greenfield capacity additions. The EandC fleet is ''fully booked'' in 2025/26 and 50% booked in 2027/28, with SPM expecting to cover the remaining 50% within 1H25. The expected addition of a chartered EandC vessel from early 2025 should further support SPM''s bidding efforts on opportunities in LATAM and West Africa in particular. Changes to estimates We incorporate record 3Q order intake and raise our forecast for ABS inbound over 2024-26, lifting our EBITDA estimates by 8% and 14% in 2025 and 2026 respectively. We raise our target price from EUR2.80/sh to EUR3.25/sh reflecting our estimate changes and as we roll our valuation to 2025. Key conference call takeaways overleaf