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  • 06 Nov 2024

50 Grades of A


Gecina (GFC:EPA), 0 | Gecina SA (GFC:PAR), 0 | Icade (ICAD:EPA), 0 | Icade SA (ICAD:PAR), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Jones Rob RJ | King Samuel SK

    • 43 pages


 

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50 Grades of A


Gecina (GFC:EPA), 0 | Gecina SA (GFC:PAR), 0 | Icade (ICAD:EPA), 0 | Icade SA (ICAD:PAR), 0

  • Published: 06 Nov 2024
  • Author: Jones Rob RJ | King Samuel SK
  • Pages: 43
  • BNP Paribas Exane


We transfer coverage of Gecina and Icade to Sam King and revisit the investment case for both. We also conduct a deep dive on the Paris office market, aided by BNP Paribas Real Estate data. Separately we publish a London office sector piece here. Paris Offices - who is in control? Occupier demand is focussed on quality. That is not new. But Grade A real estate is no longer enough in Paris. Occupiers have increasing power when negotiating the terms of landlord relationships, given large parts of the market are oversupplied. Portfolio alignment to the right submarkets is therefore critical to landlords retaining occupancy and pricing tension. We assess Gecina and Icade portfolio exposures to markets in over and under supply; Gecina is well-placed, while we believe Icade will face increasing difficulties keeping vacancy under control. Gecina (+) TP EUR120 Gecina is our top European office pick. The sector is battling perception risks, where many investors question the structural outlook for demand. And rightly so. Demand is estimated to settle 20% below pre-covid levels due to WFH in Ile-de-France. But the office is not dead. And tenant demand is more focussed on quality and location than ever. Gecina will benefit from that focussing of demand, and we forecast attractive earnings growth and total returns over the following three years that compare well versus peers. We reiterate our Outperform rating. Icade (=) TP EUR26 At first glance Icade looks cheap. Big discount to NTA, double digit FFO yield and sufficient balance sheet liquidity, all against a backdrop of central banks cutting rates. What''s not to like? A few things in our view. Structural concerns on non-CBD offices, valuation declines and capital constraints. On closer inspection, the stock does not strike us as glaringly cheap. We think the ReShape strategy credible, but think negative property returns and lack of Healthcare disposals will preclude a re-rating.

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