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15 Nov 2024
9M 24 results - After the call: A strong Q3, but be cautious on fully extrapolating it

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9M 24 results - After the call: A strong Q3, but be cautious on fully extrapolating it
- Published:
15 Nov 2024 -
Author:
Pearce Iain IP -
Pages:
9 -
Generali management hosted a results call with management following a strong set of 9m 2024 numbers. In the call they discussed the true level of the underlying performance and highlighted a number of items which will impact the results in Q4. Overall, management are clearly optimistic on the underlying level of performance of the business and the trajectory of earnings vs claims inflation trends. However, there are expected to be a number of headwinds in the Q4 numbers and there was an indication that Q3 was especially strong and benefitted from a few one-offs. This may create a bit of caution around how much this run-rate of performance can be extrapolated into the targets at the investor day. We summarise the key takeaways from the call below:
. Some positive experience supported the very strong attritional development in Q3: Generali delivered a very strong attritional loss ratio in Q3. The Q3 attritional undiscounted loss ratio was 65.1%, a greater than 2ppt improvement vs 3Q23. Management highlighted that the result had benefitted from a low level of frequency, low bodily injury and low man-made losses. As such, it cautioned against the extrapolation of these results into the future. However, it did confirm that the pricing trends are earning through positively and the company is clearly on track to achieve the targeted undiscounted combined ratio for FY24 and FY25.
. Q4 Headwinds: Management also flagged a few items that will create headwinds in Q4. These include natural catastrophe losses which are already at EUR100m in the quarter. There is also an additional EUR20m of losses from riot losses in Martinique. Discounting is expected to be lower than we had forecast for Q4 at EUR50m (0.6% on BNPPE Q4 COR). In the non-operating line, there are expected to be negatives from restructuring costs and Real Estate impairments whilst tax changes are expected to be a headwind of EUR40m.
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