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  • 25 Jul 2024

A beat across the board


JCDecaux (DEC:EPA), 0 | JCDecaux SE (DEC:PAR), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Gelebart Laurent LG

    • 10 pages


 

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A beat across the board


JCDecaux (DEC:EPA), 0 | JCDecaux SE (DEC:PAR), 0

  • Published: 25 Jul 2024
  • Author: Gelebart Laurent LG
  • Pages: 10
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Q2 organic growth came in ahead of expectations and consensus JCDecaux''s Q2 organic growth came in at 15.4%, vs 12.4% expected by consensus and 12.2% by BNPPE. Organic growth stood at 13.4% in H1 vs consensus at 11.7%. The beat stemmed from all segments, with billboard ahead by 340bps, transport by 160bps and street furniture by 30bps. Over H1, digital-led OOH was up 27.8% (analogic up c5%) with programmatic delivering some tangible progress (+62% yoy at 9% of digital, mid-term goal: 20%). H1 operating margin was up 29% yoy and came in 9% ahead of consensus All segments contributed, with the operating margin reaching EUR261m - up 29% yoy and 9% ahead of consensus. The billboard division''s progress was the most relevant with the operating margin up 400bps notably on lease renegotiations and efforts to contain the cost base. FCF also improved H1 FCF was -EUR20m, vs -EUR180m the year before. Capex was contained at c8% of sales, while working capital improved steadily as compared to last year when it was penalized by deferred rental payments following some contract renegotiations for cEUR100m. We note also that the change of factoring barely had any impact in H1. Estimates and TP lifted, Neutral reiterated We raise our EPS estimates by 7% in FY24 and FY25. Recovery remains well on track even though China remains lacklustre (c40% below pre-Covid level). Closing of the acquisition of the Spanish assets of Clear Channel Outdoor is still ongoing with some colour expected in Q3. With limited upside to our revised DCF-based fair value TP (lifted to EUR22 from EUR20.5), we reiterate our Neutral stance.

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