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17 Jul 2025
A beat & raise

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A beat & raise
Legrand (LR:EPA), 0 | Legrand SA (LR:PAR), 0
- Published:
17 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Mounsey Jonathan MJ -
Pages:
11 -
Pre-announcement of Q2 sales - strong beat
Legrand preannounced its Q2/ H1 sales. The Company delivered 10.1% organic sales growth in Q2, vs Consensus of just 4.6%, a beat of 550bps! The Company also points to 5.5% scope effect for the first half, and FX headwind of -1.4%, both broadly in line with Consensus.
Even the upper end of revised guidance is beatable
Having delivered a stronger H1 top line performance, Legrand has moved to update its FY25e guidance. The Company now targets FY''25 sales growth (organic and acquisitions, ex FX) of +10-12% (compared to +6-10% previously). This includes expected organic growth of +5-7% and growth from acquisitions of approximately +5%. Pre-release Company Consensus modelled FY''25e organic sales growth at +5% and scope at +4.6%. After H1''s sales performance of 9% organic and 5.5% scope effect, ex-FX sales are already up 14.5% YTD, meaning that even the new guide appears conservative. The scope effect for H2 is already in the bag (c. 4.5%), and is close to the H1 run rate, meaning that the slowdown needed in the Group''s organic growth in order to hit the low end of the new guidance seems too aggressive a deceleration. After 9% organic in H1, the low end of guidance (5%) implies only 1% organic sales growth in H2. The upper end (7%) implies just 5%. We think Legrand can beat even the upper end of guidance and so move to model 7.8% organic sales growth for FY25e.
Updating estimates; TP to EUR130 p/s (from EUR125 p/s)
We update our estimates for recent strong trading and the latest FX. As a result, our SOTP26-based TP rises to EUR130 p/s.