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23 Sep 2022
A SAIL''27 primer
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A SAIL''27 primer
- Published:
23 Sep 2022 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
31 -
Ahead of Carlsberg''s CMD on 28 September
Carlsberg will host its CMD in Copenhagen on 28 September. Having already outlined the key elements of its SAIL''27 strategy in February, with this report we provide context to the topics likely to be explored in more depth by Carlsberg at the CMD.
China: We expect to hear bullish expansion plans
Following the exit from Russia, China will by some distance be Carlsberg''s largest market accounting for an estimated c.20% of sales and c.30% of group EBIT. We expect Carlsberg to share more detail around ambitious expansion plans in China, particularly its local WuSu brand. Demand for WuSu has been strong enough for it to organically find its way out of provincial stronghold in Xinjiang. Through SAIL''27 we expect Carlsberg to support WuSu''s distribution expansion more actively through its big city strategy for which it has now merged the WuSu and premium international brand cities.
Western Europe: Premiumisation and margin expansion are likely to be the focus
While Carlsberg has leading positions in most of its major European markets it remains materially under-indexed to the premium+ price tier. While there is clearly a lot of scope for Carlsberg to expand its share in the higher end, with all industry peers pursuing the same premiumisation strategy we believe material market share gains will be hard to come by. Through SAIL''27 we believe Carlsberg will take a pragmatic view on volumes in Western Europe, in favour of further cost / margin improvement to fuel investments in Asia.
27 questions for management
Within we list 27 questions that we believe management could usefully address to give investors a better understanding of the Carlsberg equity story.