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08 Nov 2024
ABI’s balance sheet: an anti-consensual view

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ABI’s balance sheet: an anti-consensual view
- Published:
08 Nov 2024 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
36 -
Investors are concerned that ABI could return to old habits
With ABInBev set to return to c.3x ND/EBITDA this year, investors are concerned that ABI could return to old habits. We consider potential implications of the largest acquisition options left in beer.
Castel (Africa)
While it is far from clear that Castel would be for sale, even after 98-year-old Mr. Pierre Castel passes, we believe ABI is the best placed potential acquiror and there is a strong strategic rationale for a combination. We estimate a valuation of c.USD9.5bn for 80% of Castel (Beer and Soft drinks).
ThaiBev''s ''BeerCo'' (Thailand and Vietnam)
We suspect ABI could have interest in ThaiBev''s ''BeerCo'', principally driven by the majority (54%) stake in SABCEO (the Vietnam brewer) held within it. While ThaiBev only appears open to a sale of a minority stake in ''BeerCo'', we estimate the value of the entire business at c.USD3.7bn. Looking for other potential options in Asia, we see attractions in San Miguel Brewery (Philippines), but suspect ABI would face stiff competition from Kirin (already 49% owner) if SMB ever became available.
An anti-consensual view
While from a market sentiment perspective we would prefer capital to be returned, thinking long-term we see strong strategic sense in ABInBev acquiring any of the aforementioned assets.
Putting debate about ABI''s use of cash to one side, the business is in good health
Given the lack of large acquisition candidates in beer (even Castel would only add an est. c.0.4x to ND/EBITDA) and ABI''s prodigious cash generation (CY25e FCF yield 8.5%), we believe bigger share buybacks are a question of when rather than if. Capital allocation debate aside, our key takeaway from our recent CEO / CFO roadshow is that the business is in good health with upside potential from the growth of the digital platforms. We re-iterate our Outperform rating and EUR65 target price.