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11 Jan 2024
Agencies Q4 23 preview and 2024 outlook

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Agencies Q4 23 preview and 2024 outlook
WPP Plc (WPP:LON), 403 | Publicis Groupe (PUB:EPA), 0 | Publicis Groupe SA (PUB:PAR), 0 | Omnicom Group (OMC:NYSE), 0 | Omnicom Group Inc (OMC:NYS), 0 | Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG:NYSE), 0 | Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (IPG:NYS), 0
- Published:
11 Jan 2024 -
Author:
Packer William WP | Langlet Nicolas NL -
Pages:
22 -
Ahead of the Q4 23 release, we update our Agencies models. Our Q4 organic sales estimates are unchanged, as market conditions remain mostly in line with prior months. We expect Publicis to lead the pack with +4.5% OSG. Looking at 2024, we increase organic estimates for OMC but are more cautious for IPG and WPP, as we see no sign of rebound for tech clients. We maintain preference for Publicis, which should outperform peers due to its business mix and net new business contribution. We raise TPs for all four companies given peers'' rerating since last update.
Publicis: Q4 OSG likely in the high range of guidance
We model +4.5% OSG in Q4 23, supported by solid trends for Media (OSG +8%) and Epsilon (OSG +8%). Though slowing down, Europe should remain an important growth driver. We slightly reduce our mid-term EPS (-1%) on FX headwinds.
Omnicom: Mid-point of Q4 guidance within reach, slightly more positive for 2024
We expect +3.9% OSG in Q4 23 with a sequential acceleration in the US and Europe. Considering solid wins in recent months, we now model +3.5% OSG in 2024. We have upgraded EPS by c.+3% to reflect higher OSG, favourable FX and slight accretion from the Flywheel acquisition.
WPP: Still soft momentum in Q4, slightly more cautious on 2024 given entry rate
We forecast a -0.7% organic sales decline in Q4 due to weakness in the US and for tech clients. We turn more cautious on 2024 and now expect +1.3% OSG. Soft OSG should be partly offset by cost reduction, and we model a +50bp margin increase. We reduce EPS estimates by -3%.
Interpublic Group: Sequential acceleration in Q4 but fair to be cautious for 2024
We expect Q4 23 OSG of c.+1%, helped by improved momentum for Healthcare and increased net new business impact. Next year will likely remain challenging; we forecast +1.7% OSG and adj. EBIT margin down -10bp. We reduce our mid-term estimates by c.-2%.