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31 Jul 2025
Aiming for a 10% sales CAGR to 2030

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Aiming for a 10% sales CAGR to 2030
Legrand (LR:EPA), 0 | Legrand SA (LR:PAR), 0
- Published:
31 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Mounsey Jonathan MJ -
Pages:
11 -
We already knew about the sales, today confirmed that margins were as solid as ever...
Legrand already pre-released Q2 sales and moved its guidance; today we got the rest of the financial statements and something else (see below). In terms of the results, as a reminder, the Company already delivered 10.1% organic sales growth in Q2, vs Consensus of just 4.6%, a beat of 550bps. In addition, we now know that Group adjusted EBIT came in at EUR533mn, in line with our estimate. The Q2 margin was 21.3%, while Q2 FCF was EUR 501.6mn (Q2''24: EUR 468.1mn).
Management aims for EUR15bn by 2030 - what has to happen to make that a reality?
We are of the view, that of all the companies we cover, Legrand may be amongst the most conservative when it comes to forecasting; after all, the Group''s low end of annual guidance usually starts by assuming a recession. Yet today''s CEO statement within the release commits the Group to a target sales of EUR15bn by 2030. So what has to happen to get there? Using FY25e Consensus as the starting point, EUR15bn of sales in FY30e would imply a five-year sales CAGR of c. 10% pa. Schneider only targets 7-10% organic sales growth to FY27e. How can Legrand guide for more and for longer? Well, in truth, while impressive, 10% sales growth pa for Legrand includes both organic sales growth and contribution from future acquisitions. If Legrand can achieve 3-5% acquisition driven growth pa, then an organic sales CAGR of c. 5-7% would be sufficient to get to EUR15bn of sales by FY30e. We would assume that management expects Datacentres (currently 24% of the Group) to grow faster than that - it does lead to the question - how much of the Group could Datacentres represent by 2030?
Updating estimates; TP to EUR140 p/s (from EUR130 p/s)
We update our estimates for recent strong trading and the latest FX. As a result, our SOTP26-based TP rises to EUR140 p/s.