Strong results but lower multiple mix Uniper''s 2020 results were stronger than our expectations and although our 2021 estimates were consistent with the midpoint of the company guidance, the CFO commented that this could prove conservative, especially given the strength of the gas business in Q1 ''21 (US LNG), prompting us to increase our estimates. With the generation businesses in both Europe and Russia underperforming our estimates that leaves the volatile and unpredictable Global Commodities business contributing 44% of the group''s EBIT for 2021-24 vs 38% in the previous 4 years. Dividend uncertainty Uniper''s standalone equity story has been tied to dividend growth and although management this time last year had flagged that the pace of growth would have to slow down, it was still a surprise to see announcements on the dividend policy, including the 2021 DPS, being postponed pending alignment with majority shareholder Fortum. As we had flagged before, we do believe lower Uniper dividends are supporting Fortum''s develeraging (which in turn supports Uniper''s credit rating) and we therefore expect the eventual alignment to translate to lower dividends than previously expected for Uniper shareholders. We now assume a flat DPS going forward. Raising PT to EUR25/share Management spent much of the investor call on its ESG ambitions. Given lack of visibility we do not reflect the targeted renewables additions in our capex or earnings estimates, but do reflect the expected value creation in our SOTP PT, which thus increases to EUR25 (from EUR22). The other contributing factor to our higher valuation is lower cost of capital for the midstream gas business. Reiterate Underperform for Fortum and Uniper We continue to see Uniper shares as pricing in the squeeze-out potential from majority shareholder Fortum, the timing and likelihood of which remain uncertain. We have updated our Fortum earnings estimates to reflect our updated Uniper estimates....