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  • 23 Dec 2024

Aviva / DLG presentation takeaways


Aviva plc (AV:LON), 666

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • O''Mahony Dominic DO

    • 10 pages


 

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Aviva / DLG presentation takeaways


Aviva plc (AV:LON), 666

  • Published: 23 Dec 2024
  • Author: O''Mahony Dominic DO
  • Pages: 10
  • BNP Paribas Exane


What happened? Aviva presented details on its DLG offer this morning (first take available here and copied below). Below we summarise our main incremental takeaways from the presentation: . BASELINE: While management wouldn''t provide specific guidance for DLG''s profit outlook, they suggested that their expectations for DLG''s baseline were roughly in-line with consensus. We think this implicitly means the financial projections are based on a c.13% NIM target, as per DLG''s stand-alone guidance. . CAPITAL SYNERGIES: the CFO explained that there would be SCR diversification both at a UK General Insurance level (since personal lines diversifies well against commercial) and at a Group level (since UK GI diversifies well against Life). They will likely renew DLG customers onto the Aviva balance sheet and have the option of reinsuring DLG liabilities into Aviva, so there are ways of extracting synergies before or without a Part VII transfer. . OTHER SYNERGIES: the CFO pointed to reinsurance, revenues and claims costs as areas of synergy which have not yet been quantified. They see significant opportunity in using their combined scale to manage their supply networks. Management indicated they saw positive optionality from merging the datasets, and that they saw more upside to revenues than downside from dis-synergies. . DEBT: the CFO mentioned that the DLG debt capital will not count towards Group capital on Day 1, which we assume reflects the fact that the debt will be issued by a subsidiary rather than the HoldCo post-close. We estimate that this non-recognition will cost the group c.6ppts of S2 coverage on Day 1, taking the Day 1 capital pre-synergies to the mid-170s%. We would expect the group moves the debt from OpCo to HoldCo in time, and that this capital is thus recovered at a Group level. . RESERVING: there was little the company could say at this stage regarding reserving - other than to point out that they haven''t changed their offer price post...

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