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17 Jan 2025
Balanced on the highwire

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Balanced on the highwire
- Published:
17 Jan 2025 -
Author:
Lahmidi Mourad ML -
Pages:
53 -
Bekaert is a leader in steel wire transformation and has shown profit and cash flow resilience during the current downcycle. We see the growth outlook as underwhelming, however, with low visibility in the next six to nine months due to the macro backdrop and some company-specific issues, while higher trade tariffs look like a risk. With risk/reward looking balanced, we initiate at Neutral.
Leadership in niche industries
Bekaert is a diversified Belgian industrial group specializing in the transformation of steel wire rods and with a number one position in tire reinforcement. Its end markets are geared to Automotive (c.47% of sales), Construction (17%) and Energy (10%), making it well correlated to global PMI.
Good execution during recent volatile period
The company has been facing acute volume pressure since the end of 2022, but management has engaged in footprint rationalization and executed well on inflation pass-through, margins and cash. While the group''s strategy involves moving towards premium/innovative products, we think its mid-term growth target (c.5% LFL) looks ambitious at this point in the cycle (we see +4% in 2026).
Underwhelming growth outlook, limited visibility
We see only modest growth in 2025 due to weak demand in construction and from tire makers. Bekaert''s exposure to Europe/China (c.60% of sales) should be a headwind, and we see higher trade tariffs as a risk. Its reorganisation issues have also been a drag on growth.
We initiate with a Neutral rating and EUR35 TP
Shares currently trade at a 5Y low 12m PE of 7.0x, suggesting much of the negative news is priced in. However, we wait for an improved PMI backdrop, more visibility on tariffs and resolution of company-specific issues before taking a more constructive view. We initiate at Neutral with a EUR35 TP (avg of SOTP and relative to market). Our scenario analysis suggests -10%/+20% down-/upside.