What happened?
H1 9% ahead on revenues/adjusted EBITDA with core EPS slight ahead of consensus. Bimzelx EUR0.8bn (30% ahead of consensus with HS 20% of sales and psoriasis 60%) with notable beats from Cimzia and Zilbrysq. FY25 guidance revisions imply 4-5% consensus upgrades and we anticipate Bimzelx expectations to near EUR2bn, once increased HS rebating impacts in H2 taken into account. Peak sales guidance for Bimzelx (currently EUR4bn versus BNPP/cons EUR7/6bn) will only be updated once sales exceed EUR4bn (possibly as early as 2026/7; we note consensus expectations for 2027 just EUR3bn). Positive KOL feedback below on Ph IIa galvokimig atopic dermatitis data (details here) worth flagging. We continue to be sanguine ahead of 16-week Ph III sonelokimab HS data, supported by KOL feedback
BNPP Exane View:
UCB has a long-standing track record of providing guidance for the year and ending up at the top of the range, and in many cases ahead. 2025 continues the theme. Bimzelx EUR799m (100% CER growth) with US sales of EUR545m implying price of EUR5.5k/Rx, a net increase in price per Rx vs last quarter. The company expects more rebating in the second half as HS access expands but taking this price decline into consideration in 2H and extrapolating current script trends we see EUR2.0bn for FY25 achievable
Key financials
. 1H revenues (26% CER), Adjusted EBITDA (61% CER) and Core EPS (+73% CER) were +9/9/1% versus consensus respectively.
. Bimzelx 30% ahead of consensus posting EUR545m in the US and EUR254m ROW. US sales imply price of EUR5.5k/Rx implying net increase in price per Rx vs last quarter. The company expects more rebating in the second half as HS access expands but taking this price decline into consideration in 2H and extrapolating current script trends we see EUR2.0bn for FY25 achievable.
. Rystiggo/Zilbrysq grew 90/100% at CER respectively with Rystiggo in-line and Zilbrysq beating cons by 23%.
. On the PandL, greater than expected OpEx offset by higher...
