What happened?
We have been extensively marketing since our sector launch in April (see Pharma Drama). Investor appetite to engage with Pharma is limited, with Novo Nordisk, UCB and Galderma key exceptions. Strengthening Bimzelx trends (HS 20% of Rx with the value of a HS almost double that of a psoriasis patient) point to EUR1.7bn sales in FY25, versus consensus EUR1.4bn. Consequently, we expect group guidance to be raised at H1. Bimzelx 2036e peak sales EUR7bn versus cons at EUR6bn. Food for thought; after 80 weeks Bimzelx is strongly outpacing the launch ramp of Skyrizi, which itself delivered EUR4.5bn in global sales 4 years after launch. Bimzelx consensus for Year 4 sales post launch currently just EUR3bn. Separately, we note UCB has committed $2bn in incremental US capex over the next 7 years to build a new plant to support Bimzelx/Rystiggo/Zilbrysq and has increased its number of contracted US CMOs 50% to 18.
BNPP Exane View:
Bimzelx TRx reached all time high this week at 5,167 TRx with YoY TRx/NRx growth of 291/294% respectively. Bimzelx holds a 7%/8% TRx/NRx market share in psoriasis. We forecast peak Bimzelx sales of EUR7bn with psoriasis/HS making up 35/50%. We forecast up to 9% Bimzelx penetration of the treated mod-to-severe psoriasis market and up to 40% of the treated mod-to-severe HS market. IQVIA data summarised below. Separately we note Evenity dynamics worth flagging given the drug contributes 30% to UCB group profits, is growing 30%, but where consensus seems to ignore the growing EBITDA contribution.
Bimzelx Dynamics to consider
. Although NVS''s Cosentyx and ABBV''s Humira already have approval for HS, the patient population remains underdiagnosed leaving plenty of room for the market to expand and accommodate multiple sponsors. We estimate a ~$10bn total HS market opportunity.
. We do not see recent Incyte/Sanofi data and expected Moonlake data in September being able to surpass Bimzelx, which itself recently presented stellar 2-year...
