What happened?
We have been extensively marketing since our sector launch in April (see Pharma Drama: where do we have conviction?). Investor appetite to engage with the sector is limited, with Novo Nordisk and UCB the two key exceptions. Given strengthening Rx trends, and with HS now representing 20% of Rx (value of HS almost double that of a psoriasis patient), we see growing upside earnings risk: extrapolating trends imply 2025e Bimzelx sales EUR1.6bn without considering the value uplift from a rising share of HS prescriptions (BNPP and consensus EUR1.3-1.4bn). We forecast peak Bimzelx 2036e sales EUR7bn versus cons at EUR6bn.
BNPP Exane View:
Bimzelx TRx reached all time high this week at 4,710 TRx with YoY TRx/NRx growth of 351/293% respectively. Bimzelx holds a 7% market share in psoriasis. We forecast peak Bimzelx sales of EUR7bn with psoriasis/HS making up 35/50%. We forecast up to 9% Bimzelx penetration of the treated mod-to-severe psoriasis market and up to 40% of the treated mod-to-severe HS market. IQVIA data summarised below. Separately we note Evenity dynamics worth flagging given the drug contributes 30% to UCB group profits, is growing 30%, but where consensus seems to ignore the growing EBITDA contribution.
Bimzelx Dynamics to consider
. Although NVS''s Cosentyx and ABBV''s Humira already have approval for HS, the patient population remains underdiagnosed leaving plenty of room for the market to expand and accommodate multiple sponsors. We estimate a ~$10bn total HS market opportunity.
. We do not see recent Incyte/Sanofi data and expected Moonlake data in September being able to surpass Bimzelx, which itself recently presented stellar 2-year data.
. Given the Q2W dosing recommended in HS (vs Q4W in PsO/PsA/axSpA/AS), HS is set to be the most profitable indication. While dosing implies a doubled treatment cost for a HS versus psoriasis patient, we conservatively assume an 85% value uplift in our model.
. Our analysis suggests HS already...
