What happened?
UCB''s messaging on Bimzelx YTD has been to make it clear that rebating has stepped up considerably in order to gain improved access in psoriasis, though they are comfortable with 2025 consensus expectations of EUR1.4bn. Given strengthening Rx trends, and with HS now representing 20% of Rx (value of HS almost double that of a psoriasis patient), we see growing upside risks: extrapolating trends imply 2025e Bimzelx sales EUR1.5bn without considering the value uplift from a rising share of HS prescriptions. We forecast peak Bimzelx 2036e sales EUR7bn versus cons at EUR6bn.
BNPP Exane View:
Bimzelx TRx reached all time high this week at 4,637 TRx with YoY TRx/NRx growth of 337/287% respectively. Bimzelx holds 6%/7% TRx/NRx market share in psoriasis. BNPP Exane forecast peak Bimzelx sales of EUR7bn of which 35% in Psoriasis and 50% in HS. We forecast up to 9% Bimzelx penetration of the treated mod-to-severe psoriasis market and up to 40% of the treated mod-to-severe HS market. IQVIA data summarised in figures below. Separately we note Evenity dynamics worth flagging given the drug contributes 30% to UCB group profits, is growing 30%, but where consensus seems to ignore the growing EBITDA contribution.
Bimzelx Dynamics to consider
. Although NVS''s Cosentyx and ABBV''s Humira already have approval for HS, the patient population remains underdiagnosed leaving plenty of room for the market to expand and accommodate multiple sponsors. We estimate a ~$10bn total HS market opportunity.
. We do not see recent Incyte/Sanofi data and expected Moonlake data in September being able to surpass Bimzelx, which itself recently presented stellar 2-year data.
. Given the Q2W dosing recommended in HS (vs Q4W in PsO/PsA/axSpA/AS), HS is set to be the most profitable indication. While dosing implies a doubled treatment cost for a HS versus psoriasis patient, we conservatively assume an 85% value uplift in our model.
. Our analysis suggests HS already represents 20%...
