What happened?
Bimzelx continues to launch favourably in comparison to comparators with increased momentum following HS indication expansion in Nov-2024. We publish our weekly tracker summarising key Rx/sales trends. BNP Paribas Exane peak sales EUR7bn versus consensus at EUR6bn. Gross to net adjustments have gone up significantly as UCB secures improved access. Management comfortable with consensus at EUR1.4bn, we are at EUR1.3 bn.
BNPP Exane View:
Bimzelx TRx reach all time high this week at 4,257 TRx and YoY TRx/NRx growth of 374/285% respectively. Bimzelx now holds 6%/7% TRx/NRx market share within the Psoriasis class. BNPP Exane forecast peak Bimzelx sales of EUR7bn of which 35% in Psoriasis and 50% in HS. We forecast up to 9% Bimzelx penetration of the treated mod-to-severe Psoriasis market and up to 40% of the treated mod-to-severe HS market. IQVIA data summarised in figures below.
Bimzelx Dynamics to consider
. Although NVS''s Cosentyx and ABBV''s Humira already have approval for HS, the patient population remains underdiagnosed leaving plenty of room for the market to expand and accommodate multiple sponsors. We estimate a ~$10bn total HS market opportunity.
. We do not see recent Incyte/Sanofi, and expected Moonlake HS datasets being able to surpass Bimzelx, which itself recently presented stellar 2-year data.
. Given the Q2W dosing recommended in HS (vs Q4W in PsO/PsA/axSpA/AS), HS is set to be the most profitable indication for UCB. While dosing implies a doubled treatment cost for a HS versus psoriasis patient, we conservatively assume an 85% value uplift in our model.
. We note that as of Jan-25 Bimzelx has improving commercial coverage across the top 3 US healthcare plans in existing indications. We would expect HS coverage to be similar to that in Psoriasis given limited approved products
. BNP Paribas Exane peak sales for Bimzelx EUR7bn versus consensus at EUR6bn. Specifically, we forecast peak HS sales of EUR3.4bn. For reference Novartis reported...
