What happened?
Strengthening Bimzelx trends (HS 20% of Rx with the value of a HS almost double that of a psoriasis patient) point to EUR1.6bn sales in FY25, versus consensus EUR1.4bn. Consequently, we expect group guidance to be raised at H1, though note cost phasing needs to be better modelled; H1 margin likely lower than H2 with FY25 EBITDA margin at least 30%. Bimzelx 2036e peak sales EUR7bn versus cons. at EUR6bn. Food for thought; after 80 weeks Bimzelx is strongly outpacing the launch ramp of Skyrizi, which itself delivered EUR4.5bn in global sales 4 years after launch. Bimzelx consensus for Year 4 sales post launch currently at just EUR3bn. Positive Fintepla label expansion data in CDD (ultra rare disease) is an added tonic; BNPP peak sales EUR1bn versus consensus EUR0.9bn and guidance EUR0.8bn.
BNPP Exane View:
Bimzelx TRx reached 4,956 TRx with YoY TRx/NRx growth of 322/297% respectively. Bimzelx holds a 7%/8% TRx/NRx market share in psoriasis. We forecast peak Bimzelx sales of EUR7bn with psoriasis/HS making up 35/50%. We forecast up to 9% Bimzelx penetration of the treated mod-to-severe psoriasis market and up to 40% of the treated mod-to-severe HS market. IQVIA data summarised below. Separately we note Evenity dynamics worth flagging given the drug contributes 30% to UCB group profits, is growing 30%, but consensus seems to ignore the growing EBITDA contribution.
Bimzelx Dynamics to consider
. Although NVS''s Cosentyx and ABBV''s Humira already have approval for HS, the patient population remains underdiagnosed leaving plenty of room for the market to expand and accommodate multiple sponsors. We estimate a ~$10bn total HS market opportunity.
. We do not see recent Incyte/Sanofi data and expected Moonlake data in September being able to surpass Bimzelx, which itself recently presented stellar 2-year data.
. Given the Q2W dosing recommended in HS (vs. Q4W in PsO/PsA/axSpA/AS), HS is set to be the most profitable indication. While dosing implies a doubled...
