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  • 12 May 2025

CHINA INFLATION, RIO/BHP, S32


Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,273 | BHP Group Ltd (BHP:LON), 1,790 | South32 Ltd. (S32:LON), 140

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Spence Alan AS

    • 13 pages


 

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CHINA INFLATION, RIO/BHP, S32


Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,273 | BHP Group Ltd (BHP:LON), 1,790 | South32 Ltd. (S32:LON), 140

  • Published: 12 May 2025
  • Author: Spence Alan AS
  • Pages: 13
  • BNP Paribas Exane


In a nutshell: . CHINA INFLATION: Third month of deflation, . RIO TINTO (+) / BHP (=): Resolution roadblock . SOUTH32 (=): CEO Succession Daily Prices as of May 9th / PRICE MOVERS MACRO/COMMODITY WRAP: After market open, the US and China agreed to lower tariffs on eachother''s products for a 90-day period. The US will reduce levies from 145% to 30% and China will reduce from 125% to 10%. It follows meetings over the weekend and is a material de-escalation of the tariff war. Markets have logically responded positively with diversified miners up mid-single digit % while gold''s selloff this morning is continuing given the reduced bid for save haven assets. Copper rising alongside most other industrial metals given progress on trade talks. Spot copper TCRCs fell another USD 2/t w/w as participants returned from China''s Labour Day holiday. Gold (USD 3,225/oz) trading lower this morning as progress in US-China trade talks impacts safe haven demand. Macro Data this week: US CPI (consensus +2.4% y/y) tomorrow, Eurozone 1Q25 GDP (sa, consensus +1.2% y/y), US initial jobless claims (prev 228k) and US Industrial Production (consensus +0.2% m/m) on Thursday. China Macro this week: China credit data due on Thursday with Aggregate financing (cons. 1,260bn yuan) and New RMB loans (cons. 764 bn) / Source: Bloomberg, WIND NEWSFLOW CHINA INFLATION: Third month of deflation China''s CPI declined -0.1% y/y in April, the same pace as March and in-line with consensus. Factor deflation continued for a 31st month with PPI recording a decline of -2.7%. This is a small headwind for China and mining exposure, in our opinion, as additional stimulus is expected and the April print is still showing a weaker economy. RIO TINTO (+) / BHP (=): Resolution roadblock A US judge on Friday temporarily blocked the Trump administration''s transfer of land to Rio Tinto and BHP for the Resolution copper project. The long -running dispute now has another curveball thrown at its development...

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